Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

The Obameter

Review weapons programs


"Programs: Each major defense program will be reevaluated in light of current needs, gaps in the field, and likely future threat scenarios in the post 9-11 world. We must rebalance our capabilities to ensure that our forces can succeed in both conventional war-fighting and in stabilization and counter-insurgency operations."


Updates

Reviews undertaken; hard slog of shifting military priorities is a work in progress

As global threats have changed, the U.S. military has had difficulty keeping up.

During the 2008 presidential campaign, Barack Obama promised that "each major defense program will be reevaluated in light of current needs, gaps in the field, and likely future threat scenarios in the post 9/11 world. We must rebalance our capabilities to ensure that our forces can succeed in both conventional war-fighting and in stabilization and counter-insurgency operations."

The most immediate question is: Has there been a comprehensive review under Obama?

The answer is: Yes, several.

First, in February 2010, came the Quadrennial Defense Review, which is mandated every four years by Congress. Then, in January 2012, the Obama administration went beyond congressional requirements by releasing two reports -- one outlining strategic priorities for the military and the other offering more detail about how those priorities would be reflected in particular programs.

The fact that Obama personally unveiled the two reports at the Pentagon showed their significance, said Todd Harrison, a fellow with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.

The backdrop for these analyses is the need to shrink the federal budget -- even if the deep cuts of the "fiscal cliff” are avoided by a last-minute legislative deal.

"The major programs have certainly been reevaluated, but not exactly in the way Obama intended,” said Laura Peterson, a senior policy analyst for national security at Taxpayers for Common Sense, a nonpartisan group that analyzes federal spending and opposes programs it considers wasteful. Initially, she said, the Defense Department "was still in major denial about the impact our dire financial straits would have on its budget. Now, of course, everything at DOD is being evaluated and reevaluated for whether or not it can be saved from the budgetary knife.”

The 2012 review addressed the fiscal pressure openly. "It is not possible to accommodate a budget reduction of the magnitude … without scaling down force structure and delaying, decreasing, or in some cases eliminating investments,” the review noted. "The strategic guidance was written to guide these reductions in a manner that minimizes the risk to our ability to protect U.S. interests in an evolved national security environment.”

So the reviews were done as promised. How much have their recommendations for "rebalancing” been adhered to? It's much too early to tell for sure, but there are some indications that they are being followed, military experts told PolitiFact.

The two reviews in 2012 outlined five strategic priorities:

• Shift forces and investments toward the Asia-­‚ÄźPacific and Middle East regions.

• Be able to defeat a major adversary in one theater while denying aggression elsewhere or imposing unacceptable costs.

• Continue supporting technologically advanced capabilities such as unmanned aerial vehicles and cyberwarfare.

• Downsize forces to fit an era with fewer large, protracted stability operations like Iraq and Afghanistan.

• Carry out major adjustments in a way that allows for their reversal if circumstances change in the future.

Carl Conetta, director of the Project on Defense Alternatives, said the Pentagon hasn't turned on a dime, but he did say that "some rebalancing has occurred or is underway.”

Among other things, Conetta cited reductions in future fighter wings and purchases of F-35 stealth fighters, a big rollback in the Army's Future Combat System modernization program, continued growth in special operations, increased investment in both drones and counter-improvised explosive device technology, and a greater emphasis on security cooperation rather than undertaking major counterinsurgency campaigns.

Several experts we interviewed said Obama"s promise was so vague that it allows the Pentagon lots of wiggle room. They also emphasized that it's going to be years before we know whether the transformation promised in the strategic review is fully implemented. In addition, it's worth noting that one phrase in Obama"s campaign promise -- to "ensure that our forces can succeed in … stabilization and counter-insurgency operations” -- has been deemphasized in the strategic reviews.

Still, the administration clearly kept its (very broad) promise to conduct a review -- and even went beyond the requirements set by Congress in doing so. But the harder task of rebalancing the U.S. military"s capabilities remains a work in progress. On balance, we rate this a Compromise.

Sources:

Department of Defense, main page for the Quadrennial Defense Review, accessed Dec. 18, 2012

Department of Defense, "Defense Budget Policies and Priorities," January 2012

Department of Defense, "Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense,” January 2012

Email interview with Carl Conetta, director of the Project on Defense Alternatives, Dec. 17, 2012

Email interview with Charles Knight, senior fellow at the Project on Defense Alternatives, Dec. 17, 2012

Email interview with John Pike, director of globalsecurity.org, Dec. 18, 2012

Email interview with Laura Peterson, a senior policy analyst for national security at Taxpayers for Common Sense, Dec. 17, 2012

Email interview with Todd Harrison, fellow with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, Dec. 17, 2012

Defense unveils new budget, eliminating some programs

Defense Secretary Robert Gates unveiled a new budget on April 6, 2009, that called for an end to big-ticket items in favor of troops fighting today's wars.

The new budget priorities reflected lessons learned from Iraq and Afghanistan, Gates said in a news conference announcing the changes.

"Our conventional modernization goals should be tied to the actual and prospective capabilities of known future adversaries, not by what might be technologically feasible for a potential adversary given unlimited time and resources," Gates said. "I believe the decisions that I am proposing accomplish this step."

Gates has proposed stopping production of the F-22 Raptor, which builder Lockheed Martin calls "a revolutionary leap in lethality and survivability over any aircraft in production or design anywhere in the world." Gates said the military has 187 of the F-22s already, and that's enough. They cost roughly $140 million a piece.

He also said he wants to stop production of the Marine One presidential helicopters, which have faced a number of cost overruns . "Today, the program is estimated to cost over $13 billion, has fallen six years behind schedule and runs the risk of not delivering the requested capability," Gates said.

Ending those programs would allow Gates to direct more money toward intelligence and surveillance, and to increase the number of helicopter crews, especially in Afghanistan. He also wants to add 2,800 personnel to the special operations force.

He also wants to devote more resources to the rank and file, such as increasing troop numbers, medical research and development, health programs for the wounded, child care, spousal support, lodging and education.

Gates still needs to get his budget through Congress, and it's widely expected to face fierce opposition. In some cases, the projects Gates wants to end employ thousands of people. The congressional delegation from Connecticut, for example, has already announced it will oppose stopping the F-22 program.

"Do you feel like you're walking into a buzz saw here?" a reporter asked Gates after the announcement.

"Well, there's no question that a lot of these decisions will be controversial," Gates said. "My hope is that, as we have tried to do here in this building, that the members of Congress will rise above parochial interests and consider what is in the best interest of the nation as a whole."

President Barack Obama said he would review the programs, because we "must rebalance our capabilities to ensure that our forces can succeed in both conventional war-fighting and in stabilization and counterinsurgency operations." The budget Gates outlined clearly attempts to do that. But others before him have tried and failed to stop mammoth defense spending programs. We want to see how much of his plan Gates actually gets through Congress. For now, we rate this In the Works.

Sources:


U.S. Defense Department, News briefing with Secretary Gates , April 6, 2009

Washington Post, Gates seeks sharp turn in spending , April 7, 2009

The Newshour with Jim Lehrer, Secretary of Defense Gates defends new budget priorities , April 7, 2009

Wall Street Journal, Fight over F-22s , April 8, 2009

Sen. Joe Lieberman Web site, statement from the Connecticut Congressional delegation , April 8, 2009

PolitiFact.com, McCain says presidential helicopters more expensive than Air Force One , Feb. 27, 2008

Lockheed Martin, F-22 Raptor Web site , accessed April 8, 2009