Sunday, November 23rd, 2014

The Obameter

Strengthen the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and double its budget in the next four years


"The IAEA is understaffed and underresourced at a time when demand for its expertise are growing. Barack Obama and Joe Biden will seek to ensure that the Agency gets the authority, information, people, and technology it needs to do its job. They will work to double the IAEA budget in the next four years (increasing the U.S. annual share to about $225 million). They will press countries to adopt the "Additional Protocol," -- which grants the IAEA the right to conduct more intrusive inspections, including at undeclared facilities — and seek agreement among members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group not to transfer nuclear technology to NPT countries that have not adopted the Additional Protocol. They will work to gain agreement on effective global standards for nuclear safety and security. And they will call for establishing IAEA verification procedures that go beyond the Additional Protocol to strengthen the agency's ability to detect clandestine facilities and activities."


Updates

Obama's support of nuclear security agency fell short of campaign promise

As a candidate, Barack Obama promised to strengthen the International Atomic Energy Association by outlining some lofty goals. The IAEA is an international organization that seeks to promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Obama's specific promise included provisions to:
 

  • Double the IAEA budget by increasing the U.S. share in it
  • Press other countries to approve the "Additional Protocol” which grants the IAEA permission to inspect nuclear facilities
  • Establish IAEA verification procedures that go beyond the Additional Protocol so clandestine facilities can be better detected
  • Create global nuclear security standards


The first part of Obama's promise to improve the association concerned funding. Obama promised that he would "work to double the IAEA funding” by increasing the U.S. annual share to about $225 million.

The United States voluntary contribution totaled $85.9 million last year and Obama's proposed budget for 2013 goes further, asking for $90 million.

The budget also requests another $111 million for the U.S. assessed contribution which is an increase over last year's $107 million.

But that's far short of his goal of $200 million per year.

Still, the initial promise wasn't just about the budget. Obama also promised to convince other countries to adopt the Additional Protocol. States that voluntarily sign the protocol grant the IAEA permission to inspect facilities and to conduct more stringent inspections.

In the past four years, 29 more countries have signed and adopted the Additional Protocol.

Another piece of this promise stated that the administration would work to gain agreement on effective global standards for nuclear safety and security.

We found that a Work Plan emerged from the 2010 Nuclear Security Summit, which was hosted by the U.S.

The work plan outlines standards for "storage, use, transportation and disposal of nuclear materials and in preventing non-state actors from obtaining the information required to use such material for malicious purposes.”

However, the plan operates on a voluntary basis, meaning that none of the participating countries are actually obligated to follow through with it.  

Obama also promised to pressure the 46 members of the Nuclear Suppliers' Group to prevent the transfer of technology to countries who haven't adopted the Additional Protocol.

In June 2011, the Nuclear Suppliers' Group changed their guidelines so that members could only export sensitive enrichment and reprocessing items to states that have adopted the Additional Protocol.

Obama's original goal referenced nuclear technology as a whole, and this requirement only restricts transport of sensitive enrichment and reprocessing technologies, not all nuclear technology.

In response to complaints from countries like Brazil, the guideline was then amended so that states with additional safeguard systems in place could still receive technology.

The last part of the promise called for establishing stronger verification procedures that go beyond the Additional Protocol to better detect clandestine facilities. We found no evidence this ever happened.

Despite the increase in U.S. funding of the IAEA and the adoption of the Additional Protocol by more states, Obama fell short of the ambitious goals outlined in his original promise. We'll revisit this if we find new information, but for now we rate this a Promise Broken.

Sources:

Arms Control Association, Administration Budget Requests for IAEA Rise, Accessed Oct. 1 2012

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, The Unspectacular Future of the IAEA Additional Protocol, Accessed Oct. 1 2012

Department of State, Executive Budget Summary

Email interview with Kingston Reif, Director of Nuclear Non-Proliferation at the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation and Eve Hunter, Intern, Oct. 1 2012

James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, IAEA Budget Fact Sheet

The White House, Work Plan of the Washington National Security Summit,Apr. 13 2010

Lagging on money and support

In many respects, the International Atomic Energy Agency is the key piece in preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons. It provides technical assistance and materials to non-nuclear states so they can use nuclear energy for civilian purposes and inspects civilian nuclear sites to ensure weapons aren't being developed. It'll play a critical role as President Barack Obama pushes his wide-ranging nuclear weapons agenda.

So it's no surprise that on the campaign trail, Obama said "the IAEA is understaffed and underresourced at a time when demand for its expertise are growing" and promised to double the organization's budget over the next four years (which would increase the United States' annual share to $225 million a year), to push countries to allow more thorough agency inspections, to deny nuclear technology to those nations that won't and to create even an even stricter level of IAEA inspections.

That's a lot of improvements for one agency. Let's break this down.

First, the administration is promising to double the organization's budget over the next four years. The IAEA's budget for 2010 is $453 million, only a 5.4 percent increase over 2009. The United States, along with the agency's then-director, Nobel Peace Laureate Mohamed ElBaradei, was seeking an 11 percent increase. The organization's other main contributors -- mainly U.S. allies in Western Europe and Canada - opposed the hike. Still, a preliminary budget document for 2011 does have an 11 percent increase included.

Two increases that small will make it difficult for the administration to reach its goal in Obama's four-year term. Starting with 2009 budget -- which totaled about $430 million -- would require an increase to $860 million by 2013. The 11 percent increase in 2011 would bring the budget to slightly less than $503 million. Over the final two years, the organization's budget would have to increase by a whopping 70 percent. If the IAEA's other contributors are unwilling to back an 11 percent increase, it's hard to imagine them supporting those much larger jumps.

But if the world economy recovers, more progress could be made. A British cabinet minister told Arms Control Today the current fiscal climate made large increases in the IAEA's budget "unrealistic." So look at this promise again in a few years, when tax revenues may have resumed flowing into government coffers.

Bringing the focus back home, is the United States doing its part? Not really. The United States' assessed contribution to the IAEA went from $94.1 million in fiscal 2009 to $100.2 million this year, and the voluntary contribution increased from $62.5 million to $65 million. That small increase isn't nearly enough to fulfill Obama's promise.

To a certain extent, this is out of Obama's control -- the assessed contribution is based on what the total IAEA budget is. If it increases drastically, the United States' share of the budget will as well.

So Obama's plan to double the agency's budget appears to be headed for trouble. But what about his other promises to improve the IAEA? One of them is convincing other nations to adopt the "Additional Protocol," which grants the agency the right to conduct more invasive inspections and inspect undeclared facilities.

The IAEA's Web site provides a record of when countries took each of the three main steps towards adopting the protocol -- when the IAEA's Board of Governors approved the protocol, when an agreement was signed and when the agreement entered into force. Looking at this, we can see that under the Bush administration, about 10 nations had agreements approved each year, about nine signed a document, and about nine were entered into force.

In comparison, Obama's first year was pretty shabby. Eight nations had protocols approved by the Board of Governors, six had documents signed and five protocols went into force.

But not all protocols are created equal. Botswana, for example, took all three steps under the Bush administration, but no one is anticipating Gaborone deploying a nuclear arsenal anytime soon. So who took steps in 2009? Two of the world's nuclear powers: India and the United States itself. But in both cases, much of the preparation and diplomatic work was accomplished by Bush administration officials.

Obama did get some backing in September while he was chairing the U.N. Security Council. Then, the body unanimously adopted a resolution drafted by the United States that called for, among other things, all nations to adopt additional protocols, which the resolution deemed "essential." So Obama could be creating a new standard.

As a carrot (or maybe a stick) for uncooperative nations, Obama also pledged to pressure the 46 members of the Nuclear Suppliers' Group to prevent the transfer of technology to countries who haven't adopted the additional protocol. The Suppliers' Group was founded after India used nuclear technology it had obtained for supposedly peaceful means to build a weapon in 1974. The group provides guidelines indicating when nations should export nuclear-related equipment or material to non-nuclear weapon states, and when they should worry the material may be used for weapons purposes.

The Security Council resolution also asks states to consider whether or not a county had adopted the Additional Protocol before making a sale. While this isn't the hard-and-fast agreement Obama promised, the unanimous endorsement of the concept is definitely a step forward.

The final part of the promise is calling for the agency to establish stronger standards that go beyond the protocol and allow them to locate secret facilities. But we can't find any specific mention of the stronger standards in either the Security Council resolution or in Obama's speech addressing nuclear weapons in Prague.

Obama promised to do a lot for the IAEA, but not much has been accomplished so far. He'll have chances to change this with two key nuclear non-proliferation conferences coming up in the first half of 2010, but getting other nations to agree to major hikes in the agency's budget looks like a pipe dream right now. He got major international backing for making the additional protocol universal, but the impact of the resolution remains unclear. For now, we say Obama's promise to strengthen the IAEA is Stalled.

Sources:

Arms Control Today, IAEA Budget Gets Modest Boost, By Peter Crail, September 2009

Arms Control Today, Obama Shifts U.S. Stance on CTBTO Funding, By Meri Lugo and Daniel Horner, June 2009

Reuters, Tight-fisted donors bastardizing IAEA: ElBaradei, By Mark Heinrich, June 16, 2009

Arms Control Association, The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) at a Glance

Nuclear Suppliers Group, History of the NSG

International Atomic Energy Association, About IAEA: Budget

United Nations Security Council, Resolution 1778, September 24, 2009

Arms Control Today, IAEA Approves India Additional Protocol, By Peter Crail, April 2009

Interview with Daryl Kimball, Arms Control Association Executive Director, January 5, 2010

International Atomic Energy Agency, Additional Protocols to Nuclear Safeguards Agreements

The White House, Remarks By President Barack Obama In Prague As Delivered, April 5, 2009