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On the eve of Gov. Rick Scott’s third State of the State address, Florida Democrats released a lengthy memo detailing setbacks for job creation under his reign.
"After cutting more jobs than he created in Florida in 2012, failing to keep his promise to create 700,000 new jobs and a disastrous election year where the Florida GOP ‘got their teeth kicked in,’ Gov. Rick Scott is running away from everything he campaigned on to get re-elected," wrote Scott Arceneaux, the party’s executive director, in the March 4 memo.
His memo served up plenty of talking points for Democratic lawmakers at a press conference berating Scott’s policies later that day. "Scott cut more jobs than he created in 2012, and the jobs he created aren’t high-quality, high-paying positions of the future," said Sen. Darren Soto, D-Orlando.
PolitiFact Florida is monitoring the central promise of Scott’s 2010 campaign -- creating 700,000 jobs over seven years -- on the Scott-O-Meter, where it is rated Stalled.The state has experienced positive job growth since Scott took office in January 2011, but not at the rate that he would need to meet his pledge.
With that in mind, the Democrats’ claim that Scott cut "more jobs than he created" sounded like it needed another look.
We should note first that it's not right to give Scott credit (or blame) for all job growth (or losses) that happens while he is governor. Economic experts have told us that governors usually have little influence on short-term economic performance in their states. Often, national trends and general economic circumstances overwhelm the actions of a single governor.
On the other hand, public officials do have control over the size of the state workforce, and Scott made no secret of his desire to shrink the state payroll during his campaign. He said he would cut state jobs by 5 percent, a pledge we rated Promise Kept on the Scott-O-Meter.
But did he weed out state worker jobs at such a rate that it overtook private sector growth? Put simply, no.
In his memo, Arceneaux zeroed in on private vs. state government jobs in 2012.
"Since the beginning of 2012, Florida has added 7,800 private-sector jobs, but has cut 9,600 public sector jobs," he states in the memo, which offers an August 2012 report from the state’s Department of Economic Opportunity as back-up.
We noticed one problem right away. Arceneaux claims to make an overarching point about job losses exceeding gains for all of 2012. But the supporting evidence deals with federal labor data available through mid-August, accounting for just half of the year’s jobs picture.
We asked Florida Democratic Party spokesman Eric Conrad to explain. He sent us a 2012 news story from the Orlando Sentinel, which quoted Rollins College economics professor William Seyfried as saying Florida added about 7,800 private-sector jobs while cutting about 9,600 government positions -- this is key --so far that year.
Conrad said this was the most recent report the party had.
We found data for Florida jobs for all of 2012 from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Yes, 2012 was not kind to the state’s job market for the first half, Seyfried told us by phone. But federal data show it picked up after August.
From December 2011 to December 2012, Florida lost 10,600 total government jobs. On the other hand, the state saw an increase of 65,600 private-sector jobs. Put them together and you get an overall nonfarm jobs total of 54,900 jobs -- a net gain, which belies Arceneaux’s point.
"There’s no way one can conclude that Florida experienced a net loss of jobs in 2012," Seyfried said.
Florida's 2012 economic performance mirrored the country's underwhelming job growth, said Sean Snaith, director of the University of Central Florida's Institute for Economic Competitiveness.
"They pick six months (of Florida jobs data) and they say nothing about the role the Democratic president has played in a slow national recovery," Snaith said.
Arceneaux’s point is focused on the worst period of job growth the state experienced with Scott as governor. The state grew more than twice as many jobs in Scott’s first year in office (122,900 private-sector jobs - 7,200 government jobs = 115,700 total nonfarm jobs). And by the end of 2012, Scott’s job creation total continued to lag mightily behind his promise of 700,000 jobs but was up to 170,600.
Scott Arceneaux, executive director of the Florida Democratic Party, tried to discredit Scott’s influence on Florida’s economy on the eve of his State of the State address. Putting the blame for job losses squarely on Scott’s shoulders, Arceneaux said Scott cut "more jobs than he created in Florida in 2012."
This claim is a bad case of cherry-picking. The Democrats honed in on the state’s bleakest period of job growth. Not only that, they held it up as a whole year’s performance.
Yeah, 2012 was sluggish for job growth, especially compared to 2011. But it was an increase nonetheless.
We rate the statement Pants on Fire!
Tampa Bay Times, "Democrats pre-but Rick Scott’s State of State," March 4, 2013
Email interview with Eric Conrad, Florida Democratic Party spokesman, March 4, 2013
Interview, Gary Steinberg, spokesman for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 4, 2013
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally adjusted state and area employment, 2002-2012
Orlando Sentinel, "Florida unemployment rate rose to 8.8 percent in July," Aug. 17, 2012
Interview with Bill Seyfried, Rollins College economist, March 4, 2013
Orlando Sentinel, "FDP doesn’t think Gov. Scott’s new focus on families is genuine," March 4, 2013
Interview with Jackie Schutz, Gov. Scott spokeswoman, March 4, 2013
Interview with Sean Snaith, director of UCF's Institute for Economic Competitiveness, March 4, 2013
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