Create over 700,000 jobs

Math starting to work against Rick Scott on his centerpiece jobs promise

Updated: Tuesday, May 22nd, 2012 | By Aaron Sharockman

Florida's unemployment dropped 0.3 percentage points in April, but the number that matters most for Gov. Rick Scott actually moved in the wrong direction.

The state lost 2,700 jobs.

Scott promised during his campaign for governor to create 700,000 jobs in seven years as part of his signature plan to jumpstart Florida"s economy. As we've written several times before, the extra jobs were to be in addition to those jobs economists predicted would be created no matter who was elected governor (Scott has since back-tracked on that condition).

Ultimately, we will hold Scott to what he originally promised, which amounts to creating about 1.7 million jobs over seven years. But even under Scott"s much more generous scenario, the first-term governor is falling short.

Florida has generated 107,800 jobs since Scott took office (84,900 if you exclude January 2011, Scott's first month in office).

That's an average of 5,306 or 6,738 jobs a month, depending when you start counting.

To keep his word, Scott needs Florida to create an average of 20,238 jobs each month, every month, for seven years.

In order to hit the easier-to-reach 700,000-job mark, Scott needed Floida to create slightly more than 8,300 jobs a month, every month.

Through 16 months (15 if you decide to exclude January 2011), Scott has failed to reach either mark, meaning the state will have to grow jobs at an even faster clip in the months ahead.

For the record, it's not unusual for the unempolyment rate and the jobs numbre to move in different directions. The state's unemployment rate is taken from a household survey; the jobs numbers are based on feedback from employers. The April figures are preliminary and subject to revisions.

Scott's jobs promise appears to be getting away from him, but we'll continue to watch the numbers before rethinking our rating. For now, this promise remains Stalled.

Sources:

Tampa Bay Times, "Florida unemployment falls to 8.7 percent, but …," May 19, 2012

Politifact Florida, "Gov. Rick Scott changes the math for '700,000 jobs," Oct. 4, 2011
   
PolitiFact Florida, "Rick Scott touts '7-7-7' plan to create 700,000 jobs in seven years," July 26, 2010
   
Gov. Rick Scott, "700,000 jobs in Seven Years: Setting the Record Straight," Oct. 7, 2011

Florida adds 10,100 jobs in February

Updated: Wednesday, April 11th, 2012 | By Katie Sanders

Florida's jobs outlook improved in February after a dismal January report.

But Gov. Rick Scott still has a long way to go of fulfilling his central campaign promise: creating 700,000 jobs in seven years.

Florida has added 90,400 jobs in Scott's first 14 months in office, with 10,100 jobs coming in February 2012, according to the federal government's most recent estimate.

February's numbers helped offset a big backstep for Scott's promise in January, when the state lost 35,400 jobs (revised from its preliminary estimate of 38,600 lost jobs).

Florida is one of 28 states with significant over-the-year job gains, though its count of 72,300 added jobs trails more populous states by a long shot. Florida's population is poised to surpass New York's, but the Empire State added almost twice as many jobs from February 2011 to February 2012.

Scott isn't taking that lying down. He went on Fox News to announce that he's recruiting New York's top companies to Florida, pointing to a letter he wrote to 100 chief executives boasting of Florida's low corporate tax burden and sunny weather.

It's too early to tell if any CEOs will take up the former healthcare CEO on his offer.

He could use their help. Scott needs another 1,609,600 jobs to meet his original promise (700,000 jobs on top of projected seven-year growth of 1 million), and 609,600 jobs to meet his revised promise (700,000 regardless of the economy's performance).

Economic optimists might point to the state's unemployment rate of 9.4 percent, which remains above the national average but fell to its lowest point in three years in February.

Our task here is to focus on jobs. This promise remains Stalled.

• • •

Lagging behind job creation promise

During the 2010 campaign, Gov. Rick Scott promised to "create over 700,000 jobs for the state of Florida." Those new jobs would be on top of the jobs state economists predicted would be created naturally, Scott said -- representing a total of 1.7 million jobs in seven years, according to economists' projections. Here's how Scott stands as of February 2012.

Sources:

Tampa Bay Times, "Florida unemployments falls to 9.4 percent," March 30, 2012

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary, published March 30, 2012

The Miami Herald's Naked Politics blog, "Scott pens letter to New York CEOs: Do you like paying taxes?" March 29, 2012

Latest job numbers reveal set-backs on job creation

Updated: Tuesday, March 13th, 2012 | By Katie Sanders

Yes, Florida's unemployment rate dropped to 9.6 percent in January — its lowest point since March 2009.

But the news isn't so great for Gov. Rick Scott, who made creating 700,000 jobs in seven years his bold, catchy campaign promise.

Even though the state's unemployment rate is down, actual job numbers are down, too — 38,600 jobs lost in January, economists reported Tuesday. The good-news, bad-news numbers are largely because the two statistics measure different things.

For Scott, the bottom line is this: The state created 77,100 jobs from January 2011 through January 2012. The number's even lower — 54,200 jobs — if you exclude the month Scott was sworn into office. Either measure is far short of the deal Scott made with voters who elected him in 2010, when he said he would create 700,000 jobs in seven years. 

PolitiFact Florida continues to rate his centerpiece promise Stalled.

Scott, who celebrated a rosy December jobs report with a press conference, did not take questions from reporters Tuesday. His office issued a statement that focused on the unemployment drop, but not the job creation numbers:

"Florida's unemployment rate has now dropped for 11 of the last 13 months and this is the second consecutive month the unemployment rate has been below 10 percent," Scott said in the statement. "It's great to see Florida's economy is trending in the right direction and our unemployment rate is the lowest in three years."

During the campaign, Scott created a seven-step plan that he said would lead to the creation of 700,000 jobs in seven years. When asked by reporters, Scott said those jobs would be in addition to the jobs economists predicted would be created naturally — by either population growth or growth in the overall economy.

But Scott flip-flopped months into office, announcing in October that he would rely "on actual job growth each month," not on "what an economist in Tallahassee predicts" the state may gain or lose.

Now even that modified promise is looking shaky.

Originally, employment data measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics helped Scott claim that he added 130,000 jobs in 2011 — often illustrated by posters depicting skyrocketing job growth for the private sector as government jobs trended negative.

That outlook is worse now that economists crunched the data again.

The 2011 net jobs created was really 115,700, according to revised data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In January 2012, the state lost 38,600 nonfarm jobs -- the largest drop in the country.

We should note that January 2012 numbers are preliminary. Previous job losses identified in January 2010 and January 2011 were later reported as months with job gains.

Every year, economists revisit the monthly jobs data, which is initially based on a survey of employers, said Sean Snaith, a University of Central Florida economist. They compare the survey results with tax forms, and big fixes are necessary sometimes.

"It's just the nature of the beast," Snaith said.

Still, since Scott took office, the state has added 77,100 jobs, or merely 54,200 depending on when you start counting. That's miles short of the pace he needs to keep his original promise, but it's also now shy of even the revised promise he made in October.

Either way, this promise remains Stalled.

Times/Herald staff writer Toluse Olorunnipa contributed to this report.

• • •

Lagging behind job creation promise

During the 2010 campaign, Gov. Rick Scott promised to "create over 700,000 jobs for the state of Florida." Those new jobs would be on top of the jobs state economists predicted would be created naturally, Scott said -- representing a total of 1.7 million jobs in seven years, according to economists' projections. Here's how Scott stands as of January 2012.

Sources:

Gov. Rick Scott, State of the State Address, March 8, 2011

Politifact Florida, "Gov. Rick Scott changes the math for '700,000 jobs," Oct. 4, 2011

PolitiFact Florida, "Rick Scott touts '7-7-7' plan to create 700,000 jobs in seven years," July 26, 2010

Gov. Rick Scott, "700,000 jobs in Seven Years: Setting the Record Straight," Oct. 7, 2011

Interview with Sean Snaith, director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness, University of Central Florida, March 13, 2012

Bureau of Labor Statistics data

DEO data

Scott's tax policy presentation

Interview with Nancy Blum, Department of Economic Opportunity spokeswoman, March 13, 2012

Gov. Rick Scott backs off details of his 700,000 jobs plan

Updated: Friday, January 6th, 2012 | By Becky Bowers

More Floridians are working since Rick Scott, the self-anointed "jobs governor," took office a year ago.

And yet, today, PolitiFact Florida rates Scott's central campaign promise of 700,000 new jobs Stalled.

Why?

The promise Scott made as an outsider businessman isn't the one he's keeping from his desk in the state Capitol.

PolitiFact Florida is tracking 57 of Scott's campaign promises, and one year in, we find Scott has had more successes than failures. But in the case of the jobs promise, he has much more work to do.

Progress report

A year in, Scott has kept a third of the campaign promises we track on the Scott-O-Meter. He sold the state planes. He hasn't taken the $130,000 governor's salary. He eliminated what critics call "tenure" for new K-12 teachers.

He also reached a compromise with the Republican Legislature on a plan to cut the state workforce by 5 percent (it shrunk about 3.5 percent last year) and a promise to reform Citizens Property Insurance and allow the state-run insurer to charge market-based premiums (the Legislature wasn't ready to go that far).

Of 57 promises, he's kept 19. Just a third of his promises are now rated Broken or Stalled.

But all of that is just context for the promise Scott called his "whole campaign" — his vow to create 700,000 jobs over seven years.

Jobs promise

During the campaign, Scott said 700,000 jobs would grow from his seven-step plan for the state. State agencies would be held accountable for results from their budgets. Government spending would drop. The cost of regulation would fall. Florida would focus on job growth and retention. Its universities would be world-class. Floridians would pay lower property taxes — and the corporate income tax would disappear.

Keeping those promises, the plan said, would result in specific job growth:

• 365,000 jobs would come from tax and budget reforms, including eliminating the corporate income tax.

• 240,000 jobs would come from reducing unnecessary costs that Tallahassee places on Florida businesses.

• 60,000 jobs would come from "leveraging the economic development assets of Florida to attract key technology clusters."

The total promise was actually 665,000 jobs but, as Scott explained on the campaign trail, "It's just rounding."

Either way, Scott has abandoned the details of that plan, which he said voters had "reviewed ... and voted to enact."

He now promises that the state will generate 700,000 net jobs from all sources, whether they come from his reforms, or from simple cyclical economic recovery.

What's the difference?

As Scott ran for office, state economists forecast about a million jobs would emerge over seven years as the recession-battered state healed. Scott said his 700,000 jobs — the result of his carefully constructed plan — would come on top. In seven years, if Scott succeeded, the state would add 1.7 million jobs.

Now he says, "Instead of focusing on hypotheticals, I'm focused on what I know will be accomplished through my 7-7-7 plan — the creation of 700,000 jobs over seven years regardless of what the economy might otherwise gain or lose. Floridians will judge me not on what an economist in Tallahassee predicts, but on actual job growth each month."

And indeed, each month, he adds all new net jobs in the state to his tally, more than 100,000 so far.

He can be proud: Florida's job growth has outpaced national job growth. 

But instead of more than 20,000 new jobs each month, he's now promising just over 8,300.

He's moved the goalpost by 1 million jobs.

Economists

Politically and practically, shifting makes some sense. 

Scott made a promise to voters though it relied on many factors he couldn't control — especially the global and U.S. economies.

David Denslow, a University of Florida research economist, thinks Scott's entitled to a little renegotiating. He should be able to adjust that 1.7 million promised jobs to account for global and national pressures that weren't clear during the campaign. He should be able to adjust his 7-7-7 plan to nimbly respond to what's working, and what's not.

"If the national economy tanks, we have to cut him some slack," he said.

But to drop his goal by nearly 60 percent?

"The limit, I think, is exceeded in this instance," he said.

Tony Villamil, dean of the school of business at St. Thomas University and a long-time director of Enterprise Florida, the state's public-private economic development agency, wouldn't even hold the governor to a number.

"Jobs created significantly depend on the U.S. and global environment, which no governor can control," he said.

How would he judge a governor's success? By looking at the state's business environment.

And Scott's goals are on target, he said: cutting taxes, reducing regulation, marketing the state to businesses.

"Certainly the business environment, the things that he can control, are conducive to higher job growth," he said.

"The part that he can control — he's doing it right."

But Bill Seyfried, a professor of economics at Rollins College, points out that key parts of the governor's job agenda may not ultimately fall into place.

Scott's promise to eliminate the corporate income tax, for example, a centerpiece of the tax and budget reforms key to half of his plan's job creation, is Stalled.

"Since this hasn't occurred, the governor can make the case that it's unlikely that he'll achieve his goal," he said.

Just how is the governor performing on the 31 promises directly from his seven-step plan to 700,000 jobs? Nearly a third are Promise Kept or a Compromise. Nearly a third are In the Works. More than a third are Stalled or Broken.

Sean Snaith director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at University of Central Florida, predicts Scott's rhetoric will change when he runs for re-election.

"He wasn't a politician to begin with — because no politician would allow himself to be pinned to specifics like that," Snaith said. "... I don't think he'll make the same mistake twice."

Our ruling

Scott pledged a result that will be hard to measure — that his seven-year, seven-step plan would boost the state's job market by 700,000. Not surprisingly, Scott the governor has backed away from what Scott the candidate promised. 

It's not too late to return to the plan. Scott could tout the state's job growth, but resist adding to his 700,000 tally before his slow-acting medicine has time to work. He could task economists with evaluating the success of the policies he passes. He could take his own plan as seriously as he did 12 months ago.

But until then, we'll take him at his word — the ones he used to earn votes — and hold him accountable, as he asked us to. We rate his promise Stalled.

• • •

Lagging behind job creation promise

During the 2010 campaign, Gov. Rick Scott promised to "create over 700,000 jobs for the state of Florida" with his seven-year, seven-step economic plan. He said his plan would add to jobs already expected by the state's economists. That's 1.7 million jobs over seven years. Here's an update on the number of nonfarm jobs created since he came into office Jan. 4, 2011.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics *November jobs number is preliminary     DARLA CAMERON | Times

Sources:

Gov. Rick Scott, State of the State Address, March 8, 2011

Politifact Florida, "Gov. Rick Scott changes the math for '700,000 jobs," Oct. 4, 2011

PolitiFact Florida, "Rick Scott touts '7-7-7' plan to create 700,000 jobs in seven years," July 26, 2010

Gov. Rick Scott, "700,000 jobs in Seven Years: Setting the Record Straight," Oct. 7, 2011

Interview with David Denslow, research economist, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida, Jan. 4, 2012

Email interview with Rick Harper, executive director, Office of Economic Development and Engagement, University of West Florida, Jan. 4, 2012

Email interview with Bill Seyfried, professor of economics, Rollins College, Dec. 30, 2012

Interview with Sean Snaith, director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness, University of Central Florida, Jan. 2, 2012

Interview with Tony Villamil, dean, School of Business, St. Thomas University, Jan. 3, 2012