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A group of migrants stand next to the border wall as a Border Patrol agent takes a head count in Eagle Pass, Texas, May 21, 2022. (AP) A group of migrants stand next to the border wall as a Border Patrol agent takes a head count in Eagle Pass, Texas, May 21, 2022. (AP)

A group of migrants stand next to the border wall as a Border Patrol agent takes a head count in Eagle Pass, Texas, May 21, 2022. (AP)

Maria Ramirez Uribe
By Maria Ramirez Uribe March 6, 2024
Amy Sherman
By Amy Sherman March 6, 2024

Fact check: Elon Musk's claim that Democrats are avoiding deportations to win elections is False.

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  • There have been more than 3.6 million removals, returns and expulsions from February 2021, Biden’s first month in office, to September 2023, Department of Homeland Security estimates show.

  • It can take many years for an immigrant to become a U.S. citizen, a requirement to vote in federal elections.

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Following news reports about immigrants in the U.S. illegally suspected in violent attacks in New York City and Georgia, Elon Musk accused Democrats of avoiding deportation to win at the ballot box.

"Dems won’t deport, because every illegal is a highly likely vote at some point," Musk wrote on X Feb. 26. "That simple incentive explains what seems to be insane behavior."

Musk’s post also referred to immigrants illegally in the U.S. who are accused of assaulting New York City police officers. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, said that the reported migrants who were recorded on video assaulting police should be deported. 

Musk’s post shared another person’s X post about the murder of Laken Riley, a 22-year-old University of Georgia nursing student who was killed Feb. 22 while on a run. Authorities charged Jose Ibarra, a 26-year-old from Venezuela, with the murder.  

U.S. Customs and Border Protection stopped Ibarra when he illegally crossed the U.S.-Mexico border in September 2022, according to Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Ibarra was paroled in, allowing him to be released into the U.S. to await further immigration proceedings.

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The Nashville Tea Party, a conservative group, posted Musk’s statement on Instagram about a week later. 

This post was flagged as part of Meta’s efforts to combat false news and misinformation on its News Feed. (Read more about our partnership with Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram.)

Musk has repeatedly posted similar statements about Democrats "importing voters" or illegal immigrants and voters.

These statements by Musk — and similar ones by former President Donald Trump and J,D, Vance, now a Republican U.S. Senator from Ohio — are wrong.

We contacted X’s press team asking for Musk’s evidence and received an automated response: "Busy now, please check back later."

Democratic presidents have removed, returned or expelled millions of people 

Presidents, including Democrats, have removed and returned immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally for years, as federal government data shows.

David Bier, associate director of immigration studies at the libertarian Cato Institute, said Musk’s statement is "ludicrously untrue."

Bier pointed to data from the Department of Homeland Security showing that Biden and former Democratic presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton have returned, removed or expelled millions of people.

During each of his terms, Obama removed and returned more people than Trump did. 

There have been more than 3.6 million removals, returns and expulsions from February 2021, Biden’s first month in office, to September 2023, based on Department of Homeland Security estimates.

Voting by immigrants in the U.S. illegally carries serious risks

Federal law requires U.S. citizenship to vote in national elections, and would-be voters sign a form that attests under penalty of perjury that they are citizens when they register to vote. States can check databases to verify voters’ citizenship. 

Voting by noncitizens carries high risks that include deportation or incarceration.

There are incidents of noncitizens voting in elections, but they are sporadic among millions of votes cast in federal elections. Immigrants who cross the border illegally are typically looking for jobs and many are escaping poverty or crime — most don’t want to risk drawing government authorities’ attention by casting a ballot.

"There is a massive economic incentive to migrate here illegally," Bier wrote on X. "There’s a massive economic disincentive to vote illegally."

As we explained in a recent fact-check of Trump, fraudulent voter registration or voting by noncitizens often results from misunderstandings or errors. For example, some noncitizens accidentally register to vote when applying for a driver’s license. But the number of people who fall into this category is "minuscule," Rutgers University political science professor Lorraine Minnite previously told us

In 2020, federal prosecutors charged 19 people in North Carolina with voter fraud after they cast ballots mostly in the 2016 election. Sixteen people pleaded guilty, mostly to misdemeanors related to voting as a noncitizen; three cases were dismissed. 

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That was a big case, but more than 4.5 million people in North Carolina voted in the 2016 presidential election.

It takes years for immigrants to gain the right to vote.

It takes several years for an immigrant to become a citizen and gain voting rights.

"It takes on average five years in green card status before a person can become a U.S. citizen, so no one would instantly gain the right to vote," Michelle Mittelstadt, a spokesperson for the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute, previously told PolitiFact.

Not all immigrants who become citizens will vote. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that in the 2022 election, native-born citizen voter turnout was 53.4%, exceeding the 41.4% turnout of naturalized citizens.

There is some evidence that immigrants lean left, but there are variations depending on their backgrounds and where they live. 

A 2023 national poll by KFF and the Los Angeles Times found that 37% of naturalized citizens say the Democratic Party represents their views better than the Republican party while 21% say the Republican Party does. But large shares of poll respondents leaned toward neither party. 

But there is no guarantee that immigrants who become citizens in the future will vote for Democrats.

Bier told us that "there is zero evidence that immigration has harmed Republican Party prospects." Congressional Republicans have performed much better during periods when the immigrant share of the population is high, Bier wrote in 2019.

Our ruling

Musk said Democrats don’t deport immigrants in the U.S. illegally "because every illegal is a highly likely vote at some point."

Musk provided no evidence to support his statement about deportation or voting. The Biden administration, and previous Democratic administrations, have deported millions of immigrants.

Immigrants cannot vote until they become citizens, a process that takes several years.

We rate this statement False.

RELATED: Trump's claim that millions of immigrants are signing up to vote illegally is Pants on Fire!

Our Sources

Nashville Tea Party, Instagram post, March 5, 2024

Elon Musk, X post, Jan. 10, 2024

Elon Musk, X post, Feb. 2, 2024

Elon Musk, X post, Feb. 2, 2023

Elon Musk, X post, Feb. 5, 2023

Elon Musk, X post, Feb. 5, 2023

Elon Musk, X post, Feb. 26, 2024

Elon Musk, X post, March 5, 2024

Elon Musk, X post, March 5, 2024

KFF-LA Times poll, Many Immigrants, Including Naturalized Citizens, Don’t Feel Well-Represented by Either Political Party, Though More Align with Democrats than Republicans, Nov. 30, 2023

David Bier,  associate director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute, X post, Feb. 28, 2024

Walter Olson, senior fellow at the Cato Institute, X post, Feb. 17, 2024

Email interview, David Bier, associate director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute, March 5, 2024

FORBES, Musk Echoes Right Wing Claims On Immigration As Bipartisan Senate Bill Finally Released: What To Know, Feb. 5, 2024

New York Times, Elon Musk Is Spreading Election Misinformation, but X’s Fact Checkers Are Long Gone, Jan. 25, 2024

NBC News, Poll: 20-point deficit on handling economy highlights Biden’s struggles against Trump, Feb. 4, 2024

Email interview, Mike Madrid, Republican strategist, Feb. 5, 2024

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Pew Research Center, The changing racial and ethnic composition of the U.S. electorate, Sept. 23, 2020

Pew Research Center, Most Cuban American voters identify as Republican in 2020, Oct. 2, 2020

Gabriel Sanchez for Brookings, Immigration and the Latino vote: A golden opportunity for Democrats in 2022, June 17, 2021

WOSU, Immigration, false election claims get the spotlight in GOP U.S. Senate debate, March 29, 2022

Apple Podcasts, Latino Vote Podcast, 2022

Migration Policy Institute, Controversial U.S. Title 42 Expulsions Policy Is Coming to an End, Bringing New Border Challenges, March 31, 2022

Ohio Latino Affairs Commission, 2020 Election Participation in Ohio: A Focus on Hispanic/Latino Voters, 2021

U.S. Middle District U.S. Attorneys Office, Federal Authorities Charge Nineteen with Voter Fraud, Sept. 2, 2020

AP, Trump suggests unauthorized migrants will vote. The idea stirs his base, but ignores reality, Jan. 9, 2024

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, Secretary Raffensperger Refers 1,600 Noncitizen Registrants to Local DAs, GBI, State Election Board, April 11, 2022

Colorado Public radio, Colorado accidentally sent voter registration notices to 30,000 residents who are not citizens, Oct. 7, 2022

Wall Street Apes, X post, Jan. 8, 2024

Donald Trump, X post, Oct. 31, 2014

City of Takoma Park, Maryland, 30 years of noncitizen voting in Takoma Park, Oct. 6, 2023

PolitiFact, Elon Musk is wrong to say Joe Biden is recruiting immigrants to create a Democratic majority, Feb. 6, 2024

PolitiFact, Trump's claim that millions of immigrants are signing up to vote illegally is Pants on Fire! Jan. 12, 2024

PolitiFact, Ramaswamy’s Pants on Fire claim that the Democratic platform includes the ‘great replacement theory’ Dec. 13, 2023

PolitiFact, JD Vance’s ad about ‘open border’ and immigrant voters is wrong, April 8, 2022

PolitiFact, "Pence falsely says if HR 1 passes, millions of people in US illegally will be registered to vote," March 5, 2021

PolitiFact, "Do states verify citizenship of voters in federal elections?" Dec. 7, 2020

PolitiFact, "Fact-checking Trump's claim on cost of illegal immigration, number of immigrants here illegally," Jan. 28, 2019

PolitiFact, "No evidence ‘many’ illegal immigrants voted in midterm elections, as Lou Dobbs said," Nov. 16, 2018

PolitiFact, "Donald Trump Jr. tweets misleading 2012 headline about Florida noncitizen voters," Nov. 13, 2018

PolitiFact, "Donald Trump says there's 'substantial evidence of voter fraud.' There isn't," Jan. 5, 2018

PolitiFact, "Following Trump voter fraud allegations, claim that 5.7 million noncitizens voted is wrong," June 22, 2017

PolitiFact, "Fact-check: Did 3 million undocumented immigrants vote in this year's election?" Nov. 18, 2016

PolitiFact, "Donald Trump's Pants on Fire claim that millions of illegal votes cost him popular vote victory," Nov. 18, 2016

PolitiFact, "Trump wrongfully says immigrants voting illegally won North Carolina for Obama in 2008," Oct. 19, 2016

PolitiFact, "Donald Trump repeats Pants on Fire claim about '30 million' illegal immigrants," Sept. 1, 2016

PolitiFact, The missing facts from Nikki Haley’s claim about border crossings and deportations under Joe Biden, Jan. 11, 2024

Office of Homeland Security Statistics, Immigration Enforcement and Legal Processes Monthly Tables, accessed March 6, 2024

PolitiFact, Ron DeSantis is right, Barack Obama deported more people than Donald Trump did, Jan. 4, 2024

Office of Homeland Security Statistics, 2022 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, November 2023

U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Custody and Transfer Statistics, accessed March 6, 2024

X press team, automated email, March 5, 2024

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Fact check: Elon Musk's claim that Democrats are avoiding deportations to win elections is False.

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