Year of the Lies: Farmer says some Trump tariff statements ‘as far from the truth as you can get’

In January, when Trump took office, soybean prices in the Northern Plains, which includes North Dakota, stood at $9.50 per bushel, said Shawn Arita, a North Dakota State University agribusiness expert and former U.S. Department of Agriculture economist. After Trump levied tariffs on China — the largest market for U.S. soybeans — soybean prices tanked, crashing below $8.50 per bushel in the Northern Plains in early September. 

Today, soybean prices are $10.10 per bushel, Arita said. It costs U.S. farmers more than $12 per bushel, on average, to grow them.

China retaliated against Trump’s tariffs and bought soybeans from Argentina and Brazil instead. That was particularly painful because farmers have long relied on international trade: Roughly 20% of all U.S. agricultural production is exported.

"Those sales are often what make the difference between profit and loss at the farm level," Faith Parum, an American Farm Bureau Federation economist, wrote in October. Parum wrote that soybean markets became "the clearest signal of stress in U.S. agricultural trade."

Soybean farmers across the Midwest found themselves in limbo. 

As of November, "Most all of my neighbors that I know of in my area here in Hope, their soybeans are in their bins," Richards said. "Nobody sold any because the price isn't very good."

Ian Sheldon, an Ohio State University agricultural trade expert, said when China stopped importing U.S. soybeans in May, it put downward pressure on U.S. soybean prices. 

Trump has falsely said tariffs are paid by foreign countries, including in his inaugural speech, when he said the U.S. will "tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens" and "massive amounts of money (will pour) into our treasury coming from foreign sources."

His insistence that foreign governments are paying the tariffs is not how it works. U.S. businesses pay import taxes to the federal government. In the past, foreign companies sometimes lowered their prices to absorb some of the tariffs. But studies showed that during the first Trump administration, tariffs "were passed almost entirely through to US firms or final consumers," the Tax Foundation concluded. 

We asked the White House for evidence that foreign countries are paying the tariffs rather than U.S. importers.

Spokesperson Kush Desai said, "The Administration has consistently maintained that the cost of tariffs will ultimately be borne by the foreign exporters who rely on access to the American economy, the world’s biggest and best consumer market. If Americans were solely paying the price of tariffs, foreign countries would not have rushed to the table to strike trade deals to reduce their tariff rates and industry titans would not have committed to investing trillions in American manufacturing."

In the lead-up to April 2 — what Trump called "Liberation Day," when he rolled out "reciprocal" tariffs with countries that have trade imbalances with the U.S. — Trump appealed directly to U.S. farmers.

"To the Great Farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States," he wrote March 3 on Truth Social. "Tariffs will go on external product on April 2nd. Have fun!" 

The next day, Caleb Ragland, American Soybean Association president and a Kentucky soy farmer, said, "Tariffs are not something to take lightly and 'have fun' with." Ragland said he voted for Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in April on CNBC that because of the tariffs, "I expect most countries to start to really examine their trade policy towards the United States of America, and stop picking on us." 

Instead, China stopped purchasing U.S. soybeans in May and didn’t resume until October.

A few days after "Liberation Day," Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on CNN, "We are unleashing a new golden age, and we will see an economy that will benefit not just every corner of America, but our farmers and our ranchers and the people that have been left behind for far too long by both Republicans and Democrats."

Farm groups didn’t see it that way. They pleaded with Trump to secure a trade deal with China and with congressional leaders to "educate the White House on production agriculture." 

American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall said on "Liberation Day" that Trump’s tariffs would drive up supply costs, and retaliatory tariffs from other nations would put American farmers at a disadvantage in the global market. He said tariffs threaten farmers’ competitiveness in the short term and also could cause long-term losses in market share. 

Trump’s tariffs are not solely responsible for farmers’ challenges. In recent years, they have faced rising costs for essential items such as fertilizer. And in North Dakota, where Richards farms, June storms significantly damaged crops and farm buildings.

As his soybeans sit in storage, Richards said he and other farmers are "waiting and hoping and praying" that agreements Trump said have been negotiated will improve the outlook.

Richards farms land less than a mile from the city of Hope, home to about 300 people. Sometimes in tough times, he said he tells people, "I live just beyond Hope." 

"There is always hope in Hope. It's really being strained now."

Economists: U.S. companies and consumers pay first

Besides the soybean price crash, Richards has felt the tariff pinch in other ways.

Every purchase this year was more expensive, he said. The bearing for his combine used to harvest crops. The steel shovels for his digger. The new tire for a tractor.

Other farmers are feeling the strain. Farm production expenses are expected to rise by $12 billion this year compared with last year, the American Soybean Association wrote in December.

"Farmers are facing elevated prices for land, machinery, seeds, pesticides and fertilizers," the association wrote.

Virtually all economists, citing years of data, say much of the cost of tariffs is passed on to consumers through higher prices.

According to the Budget Lab at Yale, the effect of this year’s U.S. tariffs and foreign retaliation placed a 16.8% overall average effective tariff rate on consumers, the highest in 90 years.

The tariffs represent a $1,700 loss for the average U.S. household, the lab said. Researchers arrived at the figure based on a projected 1.2% increase in consumer prices from tariffs and assuming that it is passed on to consumers. 

Uncertainty looms for farmers

Farmers paid close attention in October, when Trump said he had struck a trade deal with China. 

The White House said China would suspend retaliatory tariffs. China also agreed to purchase at least 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans during the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons in each of 2026, 2027 and 2028. CNBC News reported Dec. 9, citing NBC News analysis, that China’s purchases have fallen well short of the 2025 goal. 

Before the 2018 trade war, Arita said, China purchased 30 to 36 million metric tons a year.

After Trump’s announcement, soybean futures climbed above $11.50 per bushel — the highest level in more than a year — reflecting improved export prospects, Arita said. Futures prices are not a guarantee that farmers will receive that amount, though. 

"Our Farmers will be very happy!" Trump wrote. "In fact, as I said once before during my first Administration, Farmers should immediately go out and buy more land and larger tractors."

The president’s comments, Richards said, are "as far from the truth as you can get." 

Many farmers are struggling with cash flow, based on land rent payments and rising input costs. 

A November survey of agricultural economists by the publication Farm Journal found that 41% said farmers are delaying decisions because of uncertainty. 

Jackson Takach, chief economist for Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, known as Farmer Mac, told Farm Journal the economic stress is highest in parts of the country where soybeans are farmers’ No. 1 crop.

When the Trump administration said Dec. 8 it will provide $12 billion in relief funding to farmers, officials blamed former President Joe Biden and not the current administration’s tariffs.

Rollins told reporters, "There is almost zero evidence, if any evidence" that farms’ economic challenges have "anything to do with these trade renegotiations."

Scott Lincicome, a Cato Institute international trade expert, said Rollins is "totally wrong."

"Chinese purchases of soybeans effectively stopped when Trump's trade wars started," he said. The combination of lower U.S. crop prices as a result of tariffs and increased costs to farmers from tariffs on things they purchase caused what Lincicome called a "government-grown" crisis.

The federal relief will cover only a fraction of the losses. North Dakota State University’s Agricultural Risk Policy Center estimated crop losses at $44 billion.

The U.S. government said it expects to pay farmers by the end of February. 

Richards wishes it wasn’t necessary.

"Do I want a government check?" Richards said. "Hell no. I want my money to come from the market, coming from somebody giving me a fair price for my product."

PolitiFact Researcher Caryn Baird contributed to this article.

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