Inflation after one year under Trump: Prices continue to rise, but some key items are cheaper

President Donald Trump recently said he has "defeated" inflation, while House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said it’s "skyrocketing out of control."

They both can’t be right. So which is it? 

As Trump finishes the first year of his second term — having won the presidency on a pledge to "get the prices down" — the picture on inflation is more nuanced than he or his critics acknowledge.

• Year-over-year inflation is down from January 2025 — but only slightly, from 3.0% to 2.7%.

• The inflation rates for groceries, housing, medical care and clothing haven’t budged from their levels during former President Joe Biden’s final year in office.

• Prices of many key grocery staples are up, but prices for some specific items — including eggs, bacon, dairy products and bread — have decreased.

• Electricity costs are up significantly, but gasoline prices have seen a notable decline.

"Overall, inflation at the start of 2026 is roughly the same as the start of 2025 — no great progress has been made," said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum, a center-right think tank.

Americans have signaled they aren’t happy: Consumer sentiment has fallen steadily in recent months and is near all-time lows.

We examined several elements of inflation at the one-year mark in Trump’s second term.

The overall picture: Inflation rate is down, slightly

When Trump was sworn in to his second term in January 2025, year-over-year inflation was 3%. In the most recent month for which data is available, December 2025, it was 2.7% a modest decrease. Today’s inflation rate is higher than it was for most of Trump’s first term, and it’s in the ballpark of where it was for most of Biden’s final year. It also remains higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.

Inflation that’s roughly steady defied his critics’ expectations, because they had expected Trump’s high-tariff policy to send prices significantly higher.

On the other hand, even steady inflation undercuts Trump’s promise of getting prices down. Prices have fallen for some specific items during his second term, but not for most.

Many key items have seen prices rise, not fall, under Trump

The price of electricity has risen significantly — almost 7% higher than a year ago. Housing, medical care, and tuition and child care are up by close to 3% year over year. Overall groceries and clothing are up by almost 2% each. Durable goods, which includes items such as appliances and furniture, saw the smallest price increase of any major category, a bit under 1%.

In some categories, inflation has been more rapid under Trump compared with Biden’s final year. Electricity prices saw the biggest acceleration under Trump. Durable goods’ prices fell during Biden’s final year but have risen under Trump. And groceries and medical care saw price increases that were slightly faster under Trump than during Biden’s last year.

Many grocery price categories have risen, but some have declined

Trump has often touted the egg price decline on his watch. With the easing of bird flu, which led to egg shortages, egg prices fell during the second half of 2025.

Bacon, dairy products and bread also experienced price declines in 2025.

But prices for other grocery staples rose during 2025, including ground beef, steak, chicken breasts, coffee, fruits and vegetables and sugar and sweets.

Economic bright spots

After spending the first 10 months of 2025 in a holding pattern around $3.10 a gallon, gasoline prices have fallen below $2.80 a gallon nationally since November.

Both new and used car prices are down — slightly — while airfares are down more significantly.

Although inflation remains elevated, wages on Trump’s watch have so far risen faster than inflation. 

Dean Baker, cofounder of the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research, noted an exception: Wage growth has been slower for those with less education and those working in lower-skill jobs, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

Overall, Americans are gloomy about inflation

Americans don’t seem happy about the outlook.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index, a leading measurement of how consumers feel about the economy, has fallen for five straight months and now is approaching a record low. The survey began in 1978.

The record low came when inflation was about 9% under Biden, in mid-2022.