President Donald Trump misleads about Walmart Thanksgiving dinner price comparison

Facing falling consumer confidence and widespread concern about inflation, President Donald Trump said a Walmart Thanksgiving dinner package shows his policies are lowering prices.

Trump used the talking point in a Nov. 10 interview with Fox News’ Laura Ingraham. Days earlier, Trump referred to Walmart during a Nov. 6 dinner with Central Asia leaders, and said, "When you look at a 25% reduction in costs for Thanksgiving between Biden and me … that's a tremendous number."

Trump, who campaigned on a promise to tackle inflation, has pushed back — sometimes misleadingly — against discussions of grocery prices increasing on his watch. His Walmart example misleads by pointing to one corporate offering as evidence of grocery prices falling overall. 

This year, Walmart is advertising a package of Thanksgiving dinner ingredients for $40. That is $15 less than the Thanksgiving grocery package it promoted in 2024. But the 27% price drop is not from lower-priced goods. It's because some items were removed or downsized from the 2025 dinner promotion.

Even so, a retail expert warned against relying on one large retailer’s prices to tell a broader story. Any store can charge less for items for reasons other than a decline in wholesale costs, including courting inflation-weary consumers. A grocer can also offer certain items as "loss leaders," which means the company accepts losses on some items and makes up the difference from customers’ purchases of other, higher-margin items.

The White House did not respond to an inquiry for this article.

Comparing the 2024 and 2025 Walmart Thanksgiving packages

Several items were consistent in Walmart’s 2024 and 2025 Thanksgiving promotions: turkey, bread rolls, canned corn, gravy mix, pie crust, pumpkin, evaporated milk and potatoes. Other 2025 food items were newly added: Stove Top brand turkey stuffing, baby carrots, canned green beans and macaroni and cheese.

However, some items that had been included in the 2024 meal were either eliminated or downsized in this year’s promotion. 

Items that were removed included chicken broth; fresh onions and celery; poultry seasoning; Marie Callender’s pecan pie; frozen whipped topping; mini marshmallows; Jiffy Corn muffin mix; and three bags of sweet potatoes. Three items also were downsized: cranberries (from a 14 ounce can to 12 ounces of fresh berries), mushroom soup (two cans to one) and crispy fried onions (from 6 ounces of French’s to 4.5 ounces of Kinder’s).

We used Walmart’s website to calculate the value of the items added to, subtracted from and downsized in the 2025 basket. The prices were as of Nov. 12 and included sale prices reported that day.

In all, the additions to the 2025 basket totaled $7.79, while the subtractions and downsized products totaled $24.35. This means the package declined in value by $16.56.

The $16.56 decline in value is roughly comparable to the $15 price reduction for the 2025 basket. The price decline can be attributed to fewer products and smaller volumes, rather than lower food costs.

"It is very unlikely that a typical household's Thanksgiving shopping trip costs them 25% less than last year, unless they are feeding 25% fewer people or people are eating 25% less," said Christopher Conlon, an economist at New York University’s Stern School of Business. 

Federal price data shows that grocery prices are up almost 1.9% since Trump took office, with a few items — including eggs and bread — falling but others rising, including meats, coffee and sweets.

Even if Walmart’s Thanksgiving package had decreased price on an apples-to-apples (or pumpkin-to-pumpkin) basis, that wouldn’t be proof that grocery prices are lower, Conlon said. Any company can lower prices on certain goods as a marketing tactic — especially a company as big as Walmart, which can subsidize lower prices on some goods with higher prices on others.

Holiday packages such as Walmart’s do not "provide an accurate measure of year-on-year price changes but instead signal to consumers, ‘Shop here if you're worried about prices,’" Conlon said. 

Our ruling

Trump said Walmart’s 2025 package of Thanksgiving dinner ingredients shows a "25% reduction in costs for Thanksgiving between Biden and me."

Trump referred to selections of Thanksgiving dinner groceries that Walmart promoted for $55 in 2024 and $40 this year, a 27% decline. 

However, the 2024 and 2025 grocery packages are not identical. The $15 price decline is not from lower food prices; it is because some items were removed or downsized from the 2025 dinner promotion. Customers are paying less because they are getting less.

Even if the Walmart comparison had been apples-to-apples, it alone would not be proof that grocery prices broadly have decreased by 25%. Companies can offer some items for less to get customers in the door and then make up the loss on higher-margin products purchased elsewhere in the store.

The Walmart dinner package’s price did fall by about 25%, but not because of lower food prices. We rate the statement Mostly False.