President Donald Trump ran for office on his dealmaking prowess, promising over and over that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war quickly.
In a 2023 campaign video, he said, "If I were president, I'd be able to negotiate an end to this horrible and rapidly escalating war in 24 hours."
He reiterated this at a 2023 New Hampshire campaign lunch: "I'll have that war settled in 24 hours, and it won't even be a tough one by comparison to other things."
He also repeated it in 2023 remarks in New Jersey, North Carolina, Texas and in an interview with Nigel Farage, the Trump-aligned leader of the United Kingdom's Reform U.K. Party. At times, he went further, promising to end the war even before taking office.
"I will get it settled before I even become president," he said during his September debate with Vice President Kamala Harris.
Now that Trump has been inaugurated, the 24-hour deadline has come and gone, but the war continues.
This promise is one of 75 that PolitiFact is tracking on the MAGA-Meter, just as we did with promises by Barack Obama, Trump during his first term, and Joe Biden.
Ending the war on any timeline presents challenges, military and foreign policy experts say.
"It will be extremely difficult for Trump to bring the war in Ukraine to a conclusion," said Lance Janda, a military historian at Cameron University. "To begin with, it's not our war to end. The war is between Ukraine and Russia, and they are the only ones who can end it."
Russia-Ukraine war has been going on for nearly three years
Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022; fighting and airstrikes have led to more than 30,000 civilian casualties, while 3.7 million people are internally displaced, and 6.5 million have fled Ukraine, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.
Under former President Joe Biden, the U.S. stood by Ukraine and delivered about $75 billion in aid since January 2022.
Even before Trump took office, some of his officials were dialing back the 24-hour time frame. During an interview with Fox News, retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, Trump's pick to serve as special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, set a goal of "100 days" for accomplishing a "near-term" solution.
As Trump signed executive orders Jan. 20, a reporter asked Trump how long it would take to end the war.
"I have to speak to President Putin," Trump answered, saying he could speak with him "very soon."
Trump added, "We are going to have to find out. He can't be thrilled, he is not doing so well."
Meanwhile, Trump said he spoke by phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after winning the election in November. The two had met in person in New York in September.
PolitiFact tried to reach White House officials about when Trump expects to achieve his promise and other details, but we did not hear back.
On Jan. 22, Trump posted a call for Putin to negotiate: "I'm going to do Russia, whose Economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR. Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT'S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. If we don't make a 'deal,' and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries."
Ukrainian servicemen of 26th artillery brigade load ammunition into a howitzer before firing towards Russian positions in Ukraine's Donetsk region on Jan. 22, 2024. (AP)
How hard will it be to end the war?
One thing Trump has going for him is war fatigue.
There is "a widespread exhaustion with the war, globally, and even in Ukraine," said Mark F. Cancian, senior adviser with the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. "Ukraine has not made a convincing argument for how it plans to win, and that feeds a fear that this will be a 'forever war.'"
But there are numerous short- and medium-term obstacles, said Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow in the Brookings Institution's foreign policy program. These include tricky negotiations over what happens to Ukrainian territory now occupied by Russia, whether Ukraine can get security guarantees, whether or when sanctions and freezes on Russian assets are lifted, and how any war crimes investigations will play out, O'Hanlon said.
Currently, Putin demands "a guarantee that Ukraine remain permanently neutral and not join NATO," the western military alliance, Janda said. He also wants limits on Ukraine's military size and removal of Ukraine's current government.
"He and other senior Russian officials have said any compromise on those points is impossible," Janda said.
Trump administration officials have said the U.S. can deploy to push the parties to the negotiating table, "increasing aid to Ukraine if Russia does not cooperate and reducing it if Ukraine does not cooperate," Cancian said. "That's not a crazy approach, but it's difficult to implement since aid levels take a lot of effort and cooperation to modulate."
Trump's promise to end the war within 24 hours as president did not come to fruition. If Trump can help end the war during his term, he could still end up with a Compromise rating, which is applied to promises where the president accomplishes substantially less than the pledge but still achieves something significant consistent with the original promise's goal.
For now, though, we rate this a Promise Broken.
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