The national average remains more than a dollar above Trump’s $2 target

On the 2024 campaign trail, Donald Trump promised Americans that gasoline prices would fall below $2 a gallon if he was elected.

As president, he has repeatedly and falsely said this goal has been met, in at least a couple states. But it wasn't true in April, and it wasn't true in early July. 

On the eve of the July 4 weekend, the national average per gallon price was $3.16 a gallon, according to the federal Energy Information Administration. 

The American Automobile Association, which tracks gasoline price data in every state, reported that the lowest average price in any state on July 3 was $2.71 per gallon, in Mississippi.

Overall, the national average price has remained stable during Trump's second term, bouncing between $3.04 and $3.21.

Over the past two decades, the national average price of gasoline has rarely fallen as low as $2 a gallon.

In the more than 1,000 weeks since 2006, only 36 weeks have produced sub-$2 gasoline — about 3.5% of the time during that period. And most of these weeks occurred during economic freefalls — during the Great Recession of 2008-09 and the early days of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 — when consumer demand was cratering.

As Trump promotes lower prices, he and his allies often say their policies have unlocked a big expansion of domestic drilling. "We're drilling like never before. That's how the oil got down low," he said during a June 29 appearance on Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures."

There's no sign of this, either. 

The weekly count of oil rigs in use, a long-term benchmark tabulated by the energy technology company Baker Hughes, shows that the number of rigs was largely stable through April and by late June had fallen to a level more than 8% lower than it was when Trump began his second term.

A big reason for the lack of drilling has been a sharp decline in crude oil prices, which makes oil companies less eager to drill. Except for a period in June, around when Israel and the United States were bombing nuclear sites in Iran, there has been a "sharp downturn" in crude oil prices starting in early April, said Clark Williams-Derry, an energy finance analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. 

Williams-Derry said this drop in crude oil prices stemmed from "a double whammy" — increased supply from the OPEC+ energy cartel and Trump's tariff policy, which has produced uncertainty about future economic growth.

The market for crude oil is global, with lots of different factors playing a role in pricing. The actions of one player, even one as powerful as the president of the United States, is limited, experts say.

Almost six months into his term, Trump has not managed to turn the clock back to $2 a gallon gasoline. We rate this promise Stalled.