Trump announces U.S. exit from Iran nuclear deal

President Donald Trump announced that the United States was pulling out of the agreement to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions.

In a statement at the White House on May 8, 2018, Trump said, "I am announcing today that the United States will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. In a few moments, I will sign a presidential memorandum to begin reinstating U.S. nuclear sanctions on the Iranian regime. We will be instituting the highest level of economic sanction. Any nation that helps Iran in its quest for nuclear weapons can be sanctioned by the United States."

Trump has argued that Tehran's long-range missile program should be viewed as part and parcel of a nuclear weapons program, even though it is not currently covered under the agreement.

Under an agreement signed under President Barack Obama, certain Iranian nuclear activities were restricted for periods between 10 to 25 years, and more intrusive, permanent monitoring was established. It also forbid Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons in the future. In exchange, Iran was relieved of economic sanctions.

Trump has also criticized the deal for failing to rein in Iran's fueling of sectarian violence in places like Syria and Yemen, despite the deal's promise to contribute to "regional and international peace and security."

And Trump has slammed the so-called "sunset provisions" that allow certain restrictions on Iran's nuclear program to expire, rather than last indefinitely.

The decision to abandon the deal and reimpose sanctions had been telegraphed for months.

On Oct. 13, 2017, the administration announced that it would decline to re-certify the deal, as his administration had previously done two times.

Trump accused Iran of failing to live up to the "spirit" of the deal, and cited "multiple violations of the agreement." (However, we have previously found that Iran had largely complied with the deal, aside from some minor infractions that were rectified.)

Trump framed his action as a kept promise.

The specific campaign promise we have been tracking since Trump's inauguration is to renegotiate the Iran deal. Whether the United States' exit from the deal advances the goal of a renegotiated agreement or amounts to a setback is not clear-cut.

In his announcement, Trump did not say that negotiations are underway. He did suggest, however, that he is open to them.

"We will be working with our allies to find a real, comprehensive and lasting solution to the Iranian nuclear threat," Trump said. In the announcement, he specifically mentioned several areas in which he wants a stronger agreement: curbs on Iran's ballistic missile program, its terrorist activities, and its "menacing activities" across the Middle East.

Trump added, "Iran's leaders will naturally say that they refuse to negotiate a new deal. They refuse, and that's fine. I'd probably say the same thing if I was in their position. But the fact is, they are going to want to make a new and lasting deal, one that benefits all of Iran and the Iranian people. When they do, I am ready, willing, and able."

That said, it's not clear that either the United States' European allies or Iran would be open to further negotiations. European leaders lobbied Trump in a last-ditch attempt to keep the United States in the deal, and after the decision was made public, they expressed regret about it. Meanwhile, Iranian leaders indicated that they would keep talking to European, Russian and Chinese leaders but reserved the right to restart banned nuclear activities within a few weeks in the absence of significant progress.

Trump's decision to abandon the deal isn't the same thing as renegotiating it. But the U.S. exit could be a precursor to negotiating a new agreement. Nevertheless, in the immediate aftermath of Trump's announcement, the odds of a renegotiation seemed slim. Until we learn more about the consequences of Trump's decision, we're keeping the rating for this promise at In the Works.