Long odds against repeal with Democrats running the House

Repealing and replacing Obamacare was one of President Donald Trump's key promises in the 2016 campaign. Full repeal eluded him in 2017, but Republicans were able to effectively neutralize the penalty on people who might be able to afford health insurance but choose not to buy it.

The individual mandate, as it is known, was one of the least popular provisions in the Affordable Care Act. In their 2017 tax bill, Republicans set the penalty at zero. By itself, as we noted in our last update, the move disrupted but did not wipe out Obamacare.

The tax change did have a big impact, though. It opened the door to a multi-state lawsuit that led a federal judge in Texas to declare the entire law unconstitutional.

U.S. District Court Judge Reed O'Connor ruled Dec. 14, 2018, that the "individual mandate 'is essential to' and inseverable from 'the other provisions of' the Affordable Care Act."

With the penalty set at zero, O'Connor said the mandate could no longer be justified as Congress using its taxing power to shape policy. So he threw out the mandate and with it, the rest of the law. He said the mandate was fundamental to making the law work.

But Obamacare lives on. O'Connor followed up with an order that put his first action on hold pending appeal.

That's where things stand, legally.

Politically, Democrats now control the House and their leader, Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., plans to intervene in the appeals process to "reject Republicans' effort to destroy the Affordable Care Act."

For now, Democrats have said they will work to protect and preserve the Affordable Care Act. Thanks to the courts, however, uncertainty remains about the law's fate. We rate the promise to repeal Obamacare Stalled.