No repeal, no replace

The promise to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, the sweeping health insurance law also known as Obamacare, regularly drew roars of approval at Trump campaign rallies. There was a two-year window when Republicans held both the House and the Senate that President Donald Trump might have had enough votes to deliver.

The effort fell short in 2017 when three Senate GOP defectors stalled the Republicans' best hope for repeal.

The party did successfully neutralize the penalty on people who were able to afford health insurance but chose not to buy it. The requirement to buy health insurance, known as the individual mandate, was one of the least popular provisions in the Affordable Care Act. In their 2017 tax bill, Republicans set the penalty at zero. 

By itself, the move did not wipe out Obamacare. But it did have a big impact. It opened the door to a multi-state lawsuit that led a federal judge in Texas to declare the entire law unconstitutional.

The U.S. Supreme Court agreed to hear the appeal, but not before October, with a ruling likely to come in 2021. (The court upheld the individual mandate in 2012.)

"There is no chance the Senate will pass anything plausible on Obamacare repeal and replace this year," said University of Pennsylvania law professor Allison K. Hoffman.

Hoffman said there is no consensus health care plan in the Senate. More than that, as the coronavirus has led to layoffs that stripped workers of their employer-sponsored health insurance, top Republicans have encouraged those people to sign up for plans available on the marketplaces set up by Obamacare.

Even if the Senate passed a bill, the Democratic House would kill it. We rate this Promise Broken.