As a presidential candidate, Donald Trump promised to secure 4% growth for the national economy. But he hasn't succeeded, even before the coronavirus pandemic sent the economy into a recession.
Here's a chart of year-over-year growth in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product. It shows that the economy didn't hit an annual 4% increase in any of Trump's three completed years in office. The periods under Trump are shown in red, while the periods in blue were under his predecessor, Barack Obama.
![](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/rnmOpCfZ9RYidT3WxUHg00soMkK4sHk4o0APAoDAMemHVSZna2nUxOv1Hz6TIuccy6HVMVxNmNiqhc6kbacTGkfC42UktP0SVJ4MFTjfjliahXrCHJTGxwEpDfIt6mUYEM7lQhhq)
The best performance on Trump's watch came in 2018, when the economy grew by 2.9% over the level in 2017.
In addition, the economy didn't even hit the 4% mark in any single quarter under Trump. This chart shows the annualized quarterly growth in U.S. GDP.
![](https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/QKmHJc1mdeXPFPm_ZMDArF5k1Uope_XsCCoobJTy_raZET8WiUBB6NPGaw9xajA1O49g6E8vyif0OZXU_BE7JjsJQOwsdsnp5OR4gJk98W2U0lTvriSTnstZURi5zM1WRkI6qwoO)
This chart shows that growth in any quarter maxed out at 3.5%, on two occasions.
"Until February 2020, a fair-minded observer would have given the Trump administration a decent grade for U.S. economic performance in its first 36 months in office," said Brookings Institution economist Gary Burtless. "However, a fair-minded observer would have given the administration a failing grade for living up to its promise to deliver 4%-per-year economic growth."
Meanwhile, the onset of the pandemic-driven recession "means the president will not achieve his goal of 4% growth" by the end of his first four years, Burtless said.
"Even if there is a quick turnaround in the second half of the year, something that is now viewed by many economic forecasters as unlikely, few economists would give the administration much credit for a quarter or two of 4%-per-year growth if GDP remains substantially below its level in the 4th quarter of 2019," Burtless said.
We'll also mention our usual disclaimer: Presidents are not all-powerful on the economy, so they don't deserve too much credit or blame for the economic performance on their watch.
We rate this a Promise Broken.