Wednesday, October 22nd, 2014

The Obameter

Extend monitoring and verification provisions of the START I Treaty


"Barack Obama and Joe Biden will work to secure Russia's agreement to extend essential monitoring and verification provisions of the START I Treaty before it expires in December 2009."

Updates

Senate ratifies New START Treaty

President Barack Obama and Russian President Dimitri Medvedev signed a new version of the START I Treaty, called New START, on April 8, 2010. But students of the U.S. Constitution know that treaties also require a two-thirds vote in the Senate. The START treaty got that approval on Wednesday.

Facing opposition from key Republicans, the Obama administration had to work hard to gain the 71 votes the treaty received, with visits and phone calls from top officials to wavering Senators.

The treaty limits the United States and Russia to 1,550 nuclear warheads and 700 intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and deployed heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments. The treaty also sets up mechanisms for verification and monitoring.

Opponents of the treaty were concerned that it limited the United States' ability to implement new missile defense systems, among other objections. The administration said that it does not affect the U.S. ability to use such systems.

Obama said during the campaign he wanted a new treaty before the old treaty expired in December 2009. He didn't make that deadline, but since negotiations were active and ongoing, we've kept it rated In the Works. Now that the Senate has ratified the treaty, we rate it Promise Kept.

Sources:

U.S. Senate, Resolution of Advice and Consent to Ratification As Amended (Treaty Doc. 111-5); Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms, signed in Prague on April 8, 2010, with Protocol, Dec. 22, 2010

The White House, Key Facts about the New START Treaty, March 26, 2010

Council on Foreign Relations, New START Heads for Ratification Vote, Dec. 22, 2010

The two leaders have announced an agreement

This promise has been a major priority for President Barack Obama, and after more than a year of intense negotiations -- including 14 calls or personal meetings with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev -- Obama announced on March 26, 2010, that an agreement had finally been reached.

But it hasn't gone as smoothly as Obama hoped. Early in his presidency, Barack Obama vowed to "reset" the U.S. relationship with Russia, and in an April meeting with Medvedev the two promised to hammer out an extension to 1991's START I (the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) before it expired in December 2009.

That December deadline came and went without an agreement.

When Obama announced on March 26, 2010, that the two countries had reached an agreement to further reduce and limit nuclear arms in a historic "new START treaty," Obama called it "one of my administration"s top national security priorities -- a pivotal new arms control agreement." Obama said he and Medvedev would meet in Prague, the Czech Republic, on April 8, to sign it.

"Broadly speaking, the new START treaty makes progress in several areas," Obama said. "It cuts -- by about a third -- the nuclear weapons that the United States and Russia will deploy. It significantly reduces missiles and launchers. It puts in place a strong and effective verification regime. And it maintains the flexibility that we need to protect and advance our national security, and to guarantee our unwavering commitment to the security of our allies."

Here are the particulars, according to a fact sheet provided by the White House: over the next 10 years, the United States and Russia would reduce their number of deployed nuclear warheads to 1,550. That's 74 percent lower than the limit of the 1991 START Treaty and 30 percent lower than the deployed strategic warhead limit of the 2002 Moscow Treaty, the release notes.

In addition, the countries agreed to cut to 800 the combined limit of deployed and nondeployed ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers, and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments. It also includes a separate limit of 700 deployed ICBMs, deployed SLBMs, and deployed heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments.

The fact that it took four months past the December 2009 deadline to resolve "suggests it was much harder than they thought," said Micah Zenko of the Council on Foreign Relations. "Clearly there was strong disagreement on a number of issues."

A March 26, 2010, New York Times story by Peter Baker details many of those disagreements.

"It is a story with twists and turns that included 10 rounds of talks by full-time negotiators in Geneva but ultimately kept coming around to intense personal negotiations between Mr. Obama and Mr. Medvedev, who met or talked by telephone 14 times to hash through disputes," the story states.

Among the hangups spelled out in the New York Times story were disagreements over details of the verification program and the sharing of missile data known as telemetry.

On the specific issue of verification and openness, the fact sheet states, "Measures under the Treaty include on-site inspections and exhibitions, data exchanges and notifications related to strategic offensive arms and facilities covered by the Treaty, and provisions to facilitate the use of national technical means for treaty monitoring." According to the New York Times, the agreement calls for 18 inspections a year, up from 10 originally proposed by the Russians. In addition, the White House stated, "To increase confidence and transparency, the Treaty also provides for the exchange of telemetry."

While the agreement is a significant milestone, it is not a done deal. Even after it is signed by Obama and Medvedev on April 8, 2010, it would still need to be approved by the U.S. Senate and the Russian legislature before it can enter into force. In the Senate, it would need to be ratified by two-thirds of the members, 67 votes, not an easy task these days.

Zenko also warns that despite the outline provided by the White House, "Until we see the 200-page technical annex, it's hard to say what exactly it is and what it is not."

The announced agreement is a "modest, necessary step," Zenko said. But future arms reduction treaties will only get tougher as the number of weapons dips into the hundreds rather than thousands, and the two countries get closer to parity with other countries like China, France and the United Kingdom. At that point, he said, it will require the United States and Russia to engage those countries in future arms reduction treaties.

Still, the agreement is progress. We'll wait until the Senate weighs in on this treaty before making a final determination on the status of Obama's promise. We're keeping this one at In the Works.

Sources:

White House Web site, Remarks by the President on the Announcement of New START Treaty, March 26, 2010

White House Web site, President Obama Announces the New START Treaty, March 26, 2010

White House Web site, Key Facts about the New START Treaty, March 26, 2010

White House Web site, Readout of the President's call with Russian President Medvedev, March 26, 2010


White House Web site, Remarks by President Obama in Prague, Czech Republic, April 5, 2009

Council on Foreign Relations, "OpenDemocracy: The Nuclear-Weapons Moment," by Paul Rogers, March 5, 2010

New York Times, "Twists and Turns on Way to Arms Pact With Russia," by Peter Baker, March 26, 2010

New York Times, "Russia and U.S. Report Breakthrough on Arms," by Peter Baker and Ellen Barry, March 24, 2010

New York Times, "Treaty Advances Obama"s Nuclear Vision," by Peter Baker, March 25, 2010

Heritage Foundation, "START Follow on Treaty: In Pursuit of a Pipe Dream," by Ariel Cohen, March 26th, 2010

Inrterview with Micah Zenko of the Council on Foreign Relations, March 30, 2010

START on the agenda after Obama's Europe trip

President Barack Obama traveled to Europe and met with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, where the two discussed START I. START stands for Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, and it set limitations on the number and type of nuclear weapons each country has.

After the meeting on April 1, 2009, the leaders declared their intention to negotiate a replacement for START I before it expires on Dec. 5, 2009.

They also directed their respective delegations to begin negotiations with a progress report due in July, when Obama intends to visit Russia.

A joint statement outlined three points:

  • that the subject of the new agreement will be the reduction and limitation of strategic offensive arms;
  • that the agreement will seek reductions in strategic offensive arms that will be lower than those in the 2002 Moscow Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions, which is currently in effect;
  • that the new agreement will "mutually enhance the security of the parties and predictability and stability in strategic offensive forces, and will include effective verification measures drawn from the experience of the parties in implementing the START treaty."

The Obama administration said that Rose Goettemiller would be the chief negotiator for the United States; Goettemiller was confirmed as assistant secretary of defense for verification and compliance on April 3.

Goettemiller said she has already spoken by phone with her Russian counterpart and a date is set for their first meeting. Goettemiller spoke at a forum hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on April 7.

These developments indicate that Obama intends to exceed his promise to continue the provisions of START I, and he has taken significant steps toward that goal. We rate this promise In the Works.

Sources:

The White House, Joint Statement by Dmitry A. Medvedev , President of the Russian Federation, and Barack Obama, President of the United States of America, Regarding Negotiations on Further Reductions in Strategic Offensive Arms , April 1, 2009

The White House, Remarks by President Obama and Russian President Medvedev after meeting , April 1, 2009

U.S. Department of State, Background readout on President Obama's Meeting With Russian President Medvedev , April 1, 2009

U.S. Senate, nomination confirmations , April 3, 2009

CSPAN , Carnegie International Nonproliferation Conference , April 7, 2009