Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

The Obameter

Provide a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants


Will support "a system that allows undocumented immigrants who are in good standing to pay a fine, learn English, and go to the back of the line for the opportunity to become citizens."

Updates

Seeing some bipartisanship on immigration

Call it a reboot: President Barack Obama broke a promise four years ago to take up a comprehensive immigration bill in his first year.

Such a bill, as Obama describes it, would provide a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

Instead, that bill may emerge in the first year of his second term — at least in the Democrat-controlled Senate.

But this time, there's a chance one could make it through the Republican House, too.

A bipartisan group of senators released a plan on Jan. 28, 2013, followed the next day by a presidential speech from Las Vegas.

"For comprehensive immigration reform to work, it must be clear from the outset that there is a pathway to citizenship,” Obama said.

The senators' framework, meanwhile, encourages "a tough but fair path to citizenship for unauthorized immigrants currently living in the United States that is contingent upon securing our borders and tracking whether legal immigrants have left the country when required."

The immigration Group of Eight includes Democratic Sens. Chuck Schumer of New York, Dick Durbin of Illinois, Robert Menendez of New Jersey and Michael Bennet of Colorado, as well as Republicans Marco Rubio of Florida, John McCain of Arizona, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Jeff Flake of Arizona.

The lawmakers asked their colleagues to pass a bill by summer, CQ Weekly reported.

If senators do act, the House is expected to take up legislation — though it might write its own bill, House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy told CNN on March 10, 2013.

That would leave lawmakers working out their differences in a conference committee.

"It's better if the House works the way it's designed, where the House passes a bill ... and the Senate passes a bill, then it goes to conference," McCarthy said.

The recent bipartisan embrace of such a path, including by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, indicates "reform prospects look good,” said America's Voice, a group that advocates for a "road to full citizenship” for 11 million immigrants.

We'll watch for specific legislative language to emerge in the spring, but in the meantime, this promise remains In the Works.

Sources:

White House, "Remarks by the President on Comprehensive Immigration Reform," Jan. 29, 2013

White House, "Keep Up to Date on President Obama's Immigration Proposal," Feb. 6, 2013

White House, "President Obama's Four Part Plan for Comprehensive Immigration Reform,” Jan. 29, 2013

White House, "IMMIGRATION: Creating an Immigration System for the 21st Century," accessed March 12, 2013

White House, "IMMIGRATION: Creating an Immigration System for the 21st Century — Earned Citzenship," accessed March 12, 2013

Senate.gov, "Bipartisan Framework for Comprehensive Immigration Reform," Jan. 28, 2013

Senate.gov, "STATEMENT BY SENATOR JOHN McCAIN ON THE BIPARTISAN FRAMEWORK FOR COMPREHENSIVE IMMIGRATION REFORM," Jan. 28, 2013

America's Voice, "WEEKEND TALKERS ACROSS THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM AGREE: GOP NEEDS TO ‘WALK THE WALK" ON IMMIGRATION REFORM," March 11, 2013

CNN, "'Now's the time' to move on immigration, Obama says," Jan. 30, 2013

CQ Weekly, "Senate Group Outlines Principles for Immigration Policy Overhaul," Feb. 4, 2013  (subscription only)

CNN Transcripts, "STATE OF THE UNION WITH CANDY CROWLEY," March 10, 2013

Obama meets with Hispanic leaders to plot new strategy on immigration reform

The last time we checked on this promise, we concluded a Congress with Republicans in control of the U.S. House of Representatives was highly unlikely to approve immigration reform. That's still the case, but we've noted new action from President Obama trying to rekindle public conversation and reset the debate in favor of immigration reform.

In recent weeks, Obama has hosted three separate meetings on immigration reform, primarily with people who support his views on the matter. Representatives have included mayors, police chiefs, business executives, religious leaders, celebrities and members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.

The statements from the White House after each meeting have echoed similar themes: that Obama would like fix the broken immigration system; that he was disappointed that DREAM Act (see update below) failed to pass last year; that he was working to improve the border enforcement and the legal immigration system; and that immigration reform requires legislative action via Congress.

The point to the meetings, though, looked like rallying his supporters to keep up their own work on immigration. 

In a synopsis of a meeting held April 28, The White House press office noted, "The President urged meeting participants to help elevate the debate, and to reach out in their unique capacities and in a public way to forge partnerships across sectors and across demographics. There was broad agreement that more voices are needed to change the tone of the debate so that Congress acts to fix the broken system in a way that upholds America's history as a nation of laws and a nation of immigrants."

 We can't say that we see evidence that Congress is more likely to address immigration reform anytime soon. But Obama looks to be rallying his troops to keep immigration reform in the public eye. In the course of our research, we ran across critics who said this is for electoral purposes, to ensure he retains political support from Hispanics going into the 2012 election. 

Whatever Obama's motivation, his hosting of high-profile meetings for immigration reform supporters counts for our purposes. We can't say Obama's chances for ultimate success are concretely better, but the meetings and the White House comments are enough for us to conclude that Obama intends to keep pursuing the matter. Obama explicitly asked his supporters to help him change the tone of the debate on immigration reform in order to create a friendlier environment for Congressional action. So we move the meter on this promise from Stalled to In the Works. 

Sources:

The White House Office of the Press Secretary, Readout of the President's Meeting with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus on Fixing the Broken Immigration System, May 3, 2011

The White House Office of the Press Secretary, Background on the President"s Meeting with Members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Today, May 3, 2011


The White House Office of the Press Secretary, Background on the President's Meeting with Influential Hispanics from Across the Country on Immigration, April 28, 2011

The White House Office of the Press Secretary, Readout of the President's Meeting with Stakeholders on Fixing the Broken Immigration System, April 19, 2011

The Washington Post, Obama renews effort to reform immigration laws despite detractors, May 3, 2011

Immigration reform appears gridlocked for next Congress

The last time we checked in on this promise, President Obama said he would not be moving on immigration reform in 2009, and we rated the promise Stalled. In 2010, Obama and his fellow Democrats pressed forward with the Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors Act, better known as the DREAM Act.

The DREAM Act was a measure to intended give a path to citizenship to illegal immigrants who were brought to the United States as children, as long as they completed schooling or served in the military, and maintained "good moral character." While it passed in the U.S. House of Representatives, it failed procedural hurdles in the Senate and never came to a vote.

The November elections mean the House will have a Republican majority in 2011, making passage of the DREAM Act significantly more difficult, not to mention passage of a path to citizenship for all illegal immigrants.

In fact, Republicans have said they intend to focus on enforcement action. "It is pointless to talk about any new immigration bills that grant amnesty until we secure the border, since such bills will only encourage more illegal immigration," said incoming House Judiciary Chairman Lamar Smith, R-Texas, in a statement.

Obama said that the failure of the DREAM Act was "maybe my biggest disappointment" of the lame duck session and that he remained committed to both the DREAM Act and a comprehensive immigration law. He said he intended to talk more about immigration in the coming year in hopes of to making it more politically popular.

In rating this promise, we see little reason to expect progress anytime soon, though Obama has said he intends to continue to press for a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. The rating remains Stalled.

Sources:

U.S. Senate, procedural vote on whether to proceed with the DREAM Act, Dec. 18, 2010

Los Angeles Times, Dream Act fails to advance in Senate, Dec. 18, 2010

The Washington Post, Next Congress unlikely to pass DREAM Act, Republicans say, Dec. 24, 2010

The Washington Post, A lost decade for immigration reform, Dec. 26, 2010

Los Angeles Times, Immigration overhaul effort seems dead, Dec. 27, 2010

Obama has said immigration reform must wait

For those waiting for President Barack Obama to keep his promise to create a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, Obama has said he does intend to fulfill his immigration promise. But he has also said he will not tackle the issue in 2009. Instead, immigration reform must get in line behind health care reform, financial regulations and a cap-and-trade plan on climate change.

Obama gave some of his most extended remarks on the matter at an August news conference with the leaders of Mexico and Canada.

He said he would push for immigration reform in 2010, after the other initiatives had been handled.

"Now, am I going to be able to snap my fingers and get this done? No. This is going to be difficult; it's going to require bipartisan cooperation. There are going to be demagogues out there who try to suggest that any form of pathway for legalization for those who are already in the United States is unacceptable," Obama said.

So Obama has said he's not moving on this promise in 2009.

He's taken steps to appease critics of illegal immigration in the debate over health care reform. For example, he added restrictions to specifically bar illegal immigrants from using their own money to purchase health insurance through any new health insurance exchanges. (Pending proposals already barred illegal immigrants from receiving subsidized care.)

Obama said that he will not push for a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants in 2009, so we rate this promise Stalled.

Sources:

White House Web site, Press conference by President Obama, President Calderon of Mexico and Prime Minister Harper of Canada , Aug. 10, 2009

Washington Post, Obama vows to focus on the border, but immigration action won't come until 2010 , Aug. 11, 2009

Los Angeles Times, Quantcast Obama takes heat from other side of immigrant healthcare debate , Sept. 16, 2009

White House Web site, Word from the White House: Reality Check on Taxes, Undocumented Immigrants, Rationing , Oct. 1, 2009