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By Wes Allison September 1, 2007

Sorry, New York is not that big

Here's the full quote, from Giuliani's May 31, 2007 speech to the Manhattan Institute:

"But even as you look back on it, the crime decline in the United States would be fairly small if it wasn't for the crime decline in New York City."

This is a case of taking good statistics and using them to reach a false conclusion.

Giuliani rightfully boasts about significant drops in crime rates during his tenure as mayor. The raw percentages are eye-popping, but they also mirror a trend that could be seen nationally and in cities around the country.

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In this statement, Giuliani simply tries to say too much. His assertion that the national decline in crime "would be fairly small" if not for the improvements in New York just isn't true.

From 1993-2001 -- the time frame the Giuliani campaign uses for its crime stats -- the number of violent crimes nationwide fell by about 25 percent. If you factor out the crimes that occurred in New York during that same period, the nationwide drop would still have been 23 percent.

The difference in the decline for property crimes would have been even smaller.

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Sorry, New York is not that big

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