Have IRS refunds increased by 11% in 2026? Yes

Seeking support from Americans worried about the economy, elected Republicans have been touting a spike in tax refunds — the first refund season following the 2025 enactment of President Donald Trump’s signature tax and spending legislation. 

"The average IRS tax refund is up 11% compared to last year thanks to the Working Families Tax Cut that expanded the standard deduction and child tax credit, eliminated taxes on overtime, tips and Social Security...and more," wrote Rep. Nick Langworthy, R-N.Y., in a March 31 X post. 

PolitiFact has previously written that Trump’s tax legislation did not eliminate taxes on Social Security but rather reduced taxes for older Americans, many of whom do collect Social Security; this earned his campaign promise a Compromise. His pledge to eliminate taxes on overtime also received a Compromise, while his promise to end taxes on tips earned a Promise Kept.

But what about tax refunds? Are they up by 11%, as Langworthy said?

When we reached out to Langworthy’s office, a spokesperson told PolitiFact New York that the 11% figure came directly from the IRS. 

IRS statistics for the week ending March 27, shortly before Langworthy’s post, showed an 11.1% increase in average refunds, from $3,170 in 2025 to $3,521 in 2026. IRS data released in subsequent weeks shows that the 11% figure has remained steady, varying by small fractions of a percent.

Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation, cautioned that filing season averages can fluctuate as more returns are processed, but tax changes such as expanded deductions and credits largely boosted refunds. 

Watson told PolitiFact in December that if taxpayers maintained their existing withholding rates, then instead of gradually receiving the benefits of the tax cuts through higher take-home pay during the year, taxpayers would receive it all at once when they filed their returns.

Our ruling

Langworthy said, "The average IRS tax refund is up 11% compared to last year."

Official IRS statistics show that by late March, average refunds were about 11.1% higher than they were in 2025, a number that has remained steady in the weeks since. Tax experts agree that the 2025 tax bill is the main reason, as taxpayers reap the rewards of tax reductions they had not planned for in their withholding.

We rate the statement True.