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Mitt Romney can rely on the vote of at least one New Jerseyan in November: Gov. Chris Christie.
But even Christie, a top Romney surrogate tapped to deliver the keynote address on Aug. 28 at the Republican National Convention, admits the rest of the state isn’t likely to swing in favor of the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.
"I don't think Mitt Romney's counting our electoral votes in his column. I believe the overwhelming likelihood is that President [Barack] Obama will win New Jersey. I think all the polls indicate that," Christie said during an Aug. 7 press conference
"A Republican hasn't won [an election] for a presidency in New Jersey since 1988. And so it's a been a long haul. Could it happen? Sure, it could happen. But I think if Mitt Romney wins New Jersey he's probably going to win in 45 other states," Christie said.
PolitiFact New Jersey can’t check Christie’s electoral prediction, but we can test his claim about the state’s past votes on the Truth-O-Meter. Was 1988 the last time New Jersey went red in a presidential election?
It’s true: a majority of voters in the Garden State cast votes in 1988 for the then-GOP presidential candidate George H. W. Bush.
That wasn’t an aberration at the time. Republican nominees had won New Jersey in every presidential election since 1968.
Bush took New Jersey in 1988 with more than 56 percent of the vote, defeating Democratic rival Michael Dukakis to secure a spot in the White House.
But four years later, New Jersey voters decided against sending Bush back to Washington for a second term.
Bill Clinton edged out Bush in New Jersey in 1992, grabbing nearly 43 percent of the state’s vote. Bush lost the state with more than 40 percent of the vote.
Since then New Jersey has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election cycle.
Here’s a breakdown of New Jersey’s presidential voting history:
|Presidential Election Year||Democratic Votes||Republican Votes|
|2008: Obama vs. McCain||2,215,422||1,613,207|
|2004: Kerry vs. Bush||1,911,430||1,670,003|
|2000: Gore vs. Bush||1,788,850||1,284,173|
|1996: Clinton vs. Dole||1,652,361||1,103,099|
|1992: Clinton vs. Bush||1,436,206||1,356,865|
|1988: Dukakis vs. Bush||1,320,352||1,743,192|
|1984: Mondale vs. Reagan||1,261,323||1,933,630|
|1980: Carter vs. Reagan||1,147,364||1,546,557|
|1976: Carter vs. Ford||1,444,653||1,509,688|
|1972: McGovern vs. Nixon||1,102,211||1,845,502|
|1968: Humphrey vs. Nixon||1,264,206||1,325,467|
|1964: Johnson vs. Goldwater||1,867,671||963,843|
|1960: Kennedy vs. Nixon||1,385,415||1,363,324|
Christie said "a Republican hasn't won [an election] for a presidency in New Jersey since 1988."
When Bush took on Dukakis in 1988, a majority of New Jersey voters cast a ballot for the Republican candidate, helping send Bush to the White House.
But four years later, the tide turned in New Jersey and the state has voted Democratic in every presidential election since.
We rate this claim True.
To comment on this ruling, go to NJ.com.
The Asbury Park Press, Christie in demand to raise cash for the GOP, Aug. 12, 2012
U.S. House of Representatives: Office of the Clerk, Election Statistics, accessed Aug. 14, 2012
New Jersey Division of Elections, NJ Election Information and Results Archive, accessed Aug. 14, 2012
New Jersey Division of Elections, November 2008 General Election results, accessed Aug. 14, 2012
New Jersey Division of Elections, November 2004 General Election results
New Jersey Division of Elections, November 2000 General Election results
New Jersey Division of Elections, November 1996 General Election results
New Jersey Division of Elections, November 1992 General Election results
New Jersey Division of Elections, November 1988 General Election results
New Jersey Division of Elections, November 1984 General Election results
New Jersey Division of Election, General Election Data: 1924 to 2010
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