Donald Trump exaggerates food inflation under Joe Biden; prices are not 40% to 60% higher

Former President Donald Trump recently claimed that the economy has gotten so bad under President Joe Biden that food prices have skyrocketed.

Speaking to the National Rifle Association Feb. 9 in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, Trump said food "costs 40%, 50%, 60% more than it did just a few years ago."

Food prices have risen unusually rapidly under Biden, along with consumer prices overall. Although inflation has eased over the past year, it peaked in mid-2022 at a level unseen in four decades.

However, Trump exaggerated the scale of the food price increase. The lowest figure Trump offered, 40%, is about twice as high as the actual rate of increase under Biden.

Trump’s campaign did not respond to an inquiry for this article.

Every month, the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates not only an overall inflation measure called the consumer price index but also specific submeasurements for food — such as meats; fruits and vegetables; and dairy products;.

The five presidents before Biden saw overall food prices rise from 5.3% (under Trump) to 12.3% (under George H.W. Bush) during their first three years in office.

By contrast, in Biden’s first three years, food prices increased by 20.3%. That rise stemmed from the same causes that drove overall inflation higher — supply-chain difficulties during and after the coronavirus pandemic, exacerbated by policies Biden pursued early in his presidency that put more money into Americans’ hands when goods supplies were limited.

But even the unusually high food inflation during Biden’s first three years has not come close to the 40% to 60% cited by Trump.

Food prices have risen 40% from April 2012 to today, and they have risen 60% from August 2007 to today. But these rises over 12 and 16 years are longer than just "a few years ago."

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We also looked at major food categories to check whether prices in any of them had increased from 40% to 60% under Biden; none had. 

The biggest increase during Biden’s first three years was for cereals and bakery goods, 25.6%. Nonalcoholic beverage prices also rose faster than food inflation overall, 21.4%. Meats, poultry, fish and eggs collectively rose by 20.2%. 

Trump may have been extrapolating from the price rise for one particular food — eggs — that skyrocketed by 229% from January 2021, when Biden came into office, to January 2023. This price increase was tied to bird flu outbreaks. That cost spike receded, although egg prices remain 72% higher today than when Biden entered office in early 2021.

Trump in September falsely claimed that the price of bacon was five times higher under Biden; the increase at the time of his statement was 30%. Bacon’s price is now about 13% higher than when Biden became president.

When gauging higher food costs’ effect on consumer pocketbooks, however, price inflation tells only part of the story. The other part comes from wages.

Like Biden, four of five presidents before him saw food prices outpace wage gains during their first three years in office. 

Biden has seen wages increase faster during his first three years than his five most recent predecessors. But in Biden’s case, those wage gains weren’t enough to keep pace with food inflation. 

In contrast, during Trump’s first three years in office, food prices rose by 5.3% as wages soared by 12.7%.

Trump said that food "costs 40%, 50%, 60% more than it did just a few years ago."

Food costs have risen faster under Biden than under any of his five most recent predecessors. Nevertheless, the overall 20% increase in food prices on his watch is half of the lowest figure cited by Trump, and one-third his highest figure.

Egg prices are 72% higher today than when Biden took office. (The price spiked 229% in January 2023 because of bird flu outbreaks.)

The statement contains an element of truth but ignores facts that would give a different impression, so we rate it Mostly False.